12/13/16

The Greenspan Put becomes the Yellen Collar

Wall Street expects the Fed to raise interest rates by a quarter point tomorrow, December 14, 2016. But there is a potential surprise: The world may learn that the Fed wants to raise rates aggressively in 2017 and 2018. This new, more “hawkish” monetary policy may become known as the “Yellen Collar.”




12/8/16

Dow 20,000, and my list of excuses

In 2013, I wrote, " we will see Dow 5,000 before we see Dow 20,000" To make matters worse, I went on CNBC to argue that printing money takes from savers to give to borrowers like the US Government. While creating winners and losers, loose money, I argued, makes the overall pie smaller. 

Today, I am preparing to eat crow. The Dow is less than 2% from 20,000. It is almost mathematically impossible for my prediction to come true. I am preparing my list of excuses, and will publish them at Dow 20000. 


12/7/16

15 Ways Chicken Little Made Money in the Trump Rally

US Stocks have gained almost 10% since Donald Trump was elected. As detailed in previous posts, Chicken owns only a tiny amount of US stocks, which means that he makes almost no money directly from the stock market rally.

So is Chicken Little missing out on the rally? No. At the bottom of this post, there is a list of 15 ways that Chicken Little has made money because of the stock market rally. This article is the reverse of one from January of 2016: 15 Ways Chicken Little Lost Money in the Stock Market Decline

Chicken Little is (indirectly) riding the Wall Street Bull

12/4/16

Economics and Evolutionary Mismatch


Economics is lost. Here is recent academic article of mine that argues for a biological road to a better economics. Economics is lost, in part, by a failure to understand the impact of ancestral urges on behavior in industrialized settings, "Bread, crack cocaine, meat, cell phones, vaccines, cyanide, sleep, and birth control pills are all treated identically by standard economic theory." 


Human nature was shaped in ancestral environments





12/1/16

Chicken Little Portfolio Performance November 2016

In November 2016, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 4.67% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.94%. The US bond market is in the midst of an enormous decline.

President Elect Trump had a HUGE impact on markets