June 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

There is one central question in finance now. Can a country become rich by deficit spending and e-printing. The US government is running the largest deficit in history, and the Fed has monetized more than 100% of the additional debt. The government spends and the Fed prints. So far, the stock market has loved this combination. Chicken Little continues to believe debt and deficit lead to Depression.  

The US Government is hurting the economy 

June 2020 performance

The Chicken Little Portfolio gained 0.06% in June 2020 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.69% (the bounce since March 23 is the best since the 1930s). 

June 2020YTD 2020
Chicken Little0.06%6.40%
Dow Jones Industrials1.69%-8.54%

Is that a depression I smell?

June 2020 was a good month for financial risk-taking with gains of 1-6% across major asset classes. Year to date, the best investments remain the safety trades of Treasury bonds, gold, and cryptocurrencies. 

AssetSymbolJune 2020YTD 2020
Dow Jones IndustrialsDIA1.69%-8.54%
Non-US StocksEFA1.48%-12.85%
Emerging Market StocksEEM6.60%-10.36%
US Long-Term BondsTLT0.33%21.84%

July 2020 portfolio positions

Chicken Little remains almost entirely in cash and relatively short-term Treasury obligations. Chicken Little continues to have a tiny position in crypto. 

Chicken Little believes it is possible that the bear bounce peaked on June 8. Accordingly, Chicken Little has a small short position in stocks. 

Chicken LittleDow Jones Industrials
2020 (through June)6.40%-8.54%
2015 (April through Dec)-2.49%-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)17.49%62.67%


  1. Terry gold is where it’s at no risk at all. Cash now is risky.

    1. I have my largest gold position in years. Still tiny. Like the father in The Croods, I see risk everywhere.

      Are you 100% in the inflationary depression camp