Wolf, Wolf, WOLF!
The Wolf is coming? Do you believe me? I have been crying wolf since December of 2009. Just over 12 years of being wrong every day. Wrong for more than a decade, but still confident.
December 2021 performance
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.45% in December 2021 capping off yet another amazing year with an annual gain of 20.69%. The Chicken Little portfolio lost 0.61% in December to finish the year up 5.11%
How do I feel about 5.11% return in 2021? Looks terrible when compared to 20+% for the Dow. However, given that the portfolio was extremely low risk, 5.11% return in a zero-treasury-rate environment is great. All the 2021 gains came from crypto - Thank you Bitcoin (and ethereum, and sushiswap... )
2021 turned out to be a very good year for US stocks, and an even better year for crypto. Emerging market stocks, gold, and long-term Treasuries all lost money in 2021. If you are a US investor, listening to US business news, all seems rosy. The global picture, however, for 2021 was mixed.
January 2022 portfolio positions
As 2022 begins, Chicken Little is mainly hiding in cash. The portfolio has 69% in cash, the rest in Treasuries with a tiny foothold in crypto. Gold has been a loser in the last year; I will add it to the portfolio if it makes a new all-time high above $2000/ounce.
Compared to one month ago, I sold all the stocks and most of the crypto. The Fed looks to be boxed in - they are tightening monetary policy way too late. I see trouble ahead for bonds and all risk assets, so have reduced risk. My short term short sell of stocks in December was closed with no gain or loss.
Compared to one year ago, the portfolio has less crypto and slightly more Treasuries. Given my financial situation, I would like to be 50% invested in Treasuries. However, given that interest rates look to continue to rise, I continue to underweight Treasuries.