December 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

 Bull Market remains strong

In 2025, the bull market in global equities remained powerful, while Chicken Little occasionally left his hiding spot to try to short stocks. Every short effort ending in losses, and 2025 continued the losing approach of Chicken Little. Global interest rates, however, continued to rise, giving me some reason to fear that the sky might still fall.  

2025: Bull Market beats up Chicken Little

December 2025 Portfolio Performance

In December, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.92%, while the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.43%. For the full year of 2025, the Dow has gained 14.56%, while the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.03%. 

	Dec 2025	2025
Chicken Little	-0.43%	-0.03%
Dow Jones Industrials	0.92%	14.56%

December 2025 was a mixed month for asset classes around the world. Gold continued to rally by adding 2% in the month for a massive 63.68% for the year.  Bitcoin slipped in December ending the year with a modest (for crypto) loss of 6.28%. Stocks around the world ended a very strong year with modest gains in December. Long-term Treasury bonds lost almost 3% in December to bring annual returns to under 4% 

Asset	Symbol	Dec 2025	2025
Dow Jones Industrials	DIA	0.92%	14.56%
Non-US Stocks	EFA	2.66%	31.30%
Emerging Market Stocks	EEM	2.11%	33.73%
US Long-Term Bonds	TLT	-2.92%	3.83%
Gold	GLD	2.18%	63.68%
Bitcoin	BTC	-2.93%	-6.28%

Could the sky still fall?

After ten years of failure, I continue to consider ending this blog almost every day. Why not quit? My answer, for now, I continue to write because my view of the world continues to unfold except for a fall in stock prices. Most importantly, global interest rates continue to rise. 

The Chicken Little Thesis (a recap)

1. Governments are pursuing destructive policies of overspending and overly loose monetary policy. 

2. Because of government corruption and incompetence, real interest rates will rise. 

3. Higher real interest rates will cause asset prices to decline. 

I believe that steps 1 and 2 of the Chicken Little thesis have been validated. In particular, the increases in global interest rates have been historic.

 

US interest rates near 20 year high

German interest rates near 20 year high

Japanese interest rates near 30 year high

Interest rates continue to rise globally. Additionally, I continue to believe that real interest rates will go even higher, and (eventually) stock prices and prices of other assets will fall. 

In short, Chicken Little remains scared. 

January 2026 portfolio position

Chicken Little Portfolio remains 100% in cash.  No change since the start of December 2025. 

Previous month's report          Subsequent Month's report

	Chicken Little	Dow Jones Industrials
2025	-0.03%	14.56%
2024	3.30%	14.71%
2023	2.05%	15.80%
2022	-5.88%	-7.06%
2021	5.11%	20.69%
2020	8.04%	9.27%
2019	9.03%	24.82%
2018	1.27%	-3.63%
2017	4.57%	27.72%
2016	-1.92%	16.08%
2015 (April through Dec)	-2.49%	-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)	24.38%	231.73%