Bull Market in jeopardy?
Global stock markets remain the last asset class standing. US Treasury bonds have lost half their value. Bitcoin has suffered a 40% decline, the US housing market is weak, and silver lost 40% in 2 trading days. Can stock markets around the world continue to rally?
Swimming in Debt
The core problem is that countries around the world are drowning in debt. The US debt to GDP ratio, for example, has increased from 33% in 2000 to 119.7% now - the highest level in history. This government spending spree has occurred during a positive economic environment with no large-scale war, low interest rates, and no severe recession.
I have been worried about government debts for many years. For example, see my post - US deficits can become huge from 2019. Recently, the world has caught up with me in worrying about overspending and e-printing money. Gold hit $5,500 an ounce last week as one expression of these fears.
Chicken Little remains scared that the sky will fall, and soon.
January 2026 Portfolio Performance
In January, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.80%, while the Chicken Little Portfolio gain 0.17%.
January 2026 was an exciting month that appears boring when looking at the final tallies. Silver lost close to 40% in one day, yet still ended up gaining for the full month. Similarly, Gold had a positive month, but dropped over 10% in 24 hours last week.
In January, non-US stock markets continued to outperform the US with the emerging markets gaining over 8% in January. To put this in context, the Emerging Market EFT, EEM, has risen a total of 20% since 2007. So 8% in a month is in a massive increase for a set of markets that have been dead money for more than a decade.
January 2026 portfolio position
Chicken Little Portfolio remains 100% in cash. No trades in January 2026. Waiting for collapse.
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