Long-Term interest rates are rising
Chicken Little has been completely wrong about the US stock market for close to a decade. My central thesis has been, and remains, that real interest rates will rise, and asset prices will fall. While I have been completely wrong about stocks, I have been right about interest rates.
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| US Debt with (eventually) crush asset prices |
Interest rate regime may have shifted globally
In 2016, I predicted the end of Japan's bond bull market. See "Regime Shift in Japanese Bonds."
Furthermore, my correct views on interest rates led me to sell 100% of my US bonds at great prices. Read these posts:
I was 100% correct about Japanese interest rates. What does being right about Japanese bonds mean for investors in other markets? I believe that the long-term move away from easy money is underway and, consequently, I am not yet ready to abandon my bearish (chicken) stance.
June 2024 performance
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.15% in June 2024. The Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.24%. Year to date, the Dow is up 4.69% while Chicken Little is up 2.52%
June 2024 was a mixed month for major asset classes. US and emerging market stocks were up in June as were long-term US Treasuries. International developed equity markets slipped, while bitcoin gave back over 8%.
Year to date, all major asset markets are up except long-term Treasuries, and crypto still the best performing asset class. Gold has had a very strong year with a return of over 12%.
July 2024 portfolio position
The Chicken Little portfolio remains positioned for financial apocalypse. Two trades in the month of June. Closed my short equity position with a modest loss, and closed my crypto position (for now) with a modest gain. I still like crypto over the medium- and long-term, just taking a break as I see if interest rates break out to new highs.
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