4/1/20

March 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance



The Covid-19 storm hit in 2020. The world was financially unprepared having squandered a decade of prosperity (see empty Rainy Day fund).  For example, in 1929 the US debt/GDP ratio was 16% of GDP; today US debt is 107% of GDP. Now, individuals will pay the price for government folly in multiple ways. 


The storm came and the government was unprepared


March 2020 performance

The Chicken Little Portfolio gained 1.64% in March 2020 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost -13.59%.  


Mar 2020YTD 2020
Chicken Little1.64%5.73%
Dow Jones Industrials-13.59%-22.56%

March was a challenging month for investors. Risky assets,  including stock markets all over the world, declined in price. Moreover, the 'safety trade' of crypto and gold failed. The only winner was Treasury obligations. 


AssetSymbolMar 2020YTD 2020
Dow Jones IndustrialsDIA-13.59%-22.56%
Non-US StocksEFA-14.11%-23.01%
Emerging Market StocksEEM-15.77%-23.94%
US Long-Term BondsTLT6.36%22.11%
GoldGLD-0.13%3.70%
BitcoinBTC-27.55%-12.65%

I summarized the situation a month ago and stand by those statements, 

"Governments around the globe are attempting to stave off economic disaster through creating money and government spending. These policies cannot work, and increase the ultimate pain in the day of reckoning. How will it end? Badly, of course. "

April 2020 portfolio positions

Chicken Little continues to live in fear of an economic Depression. For many years that fear manifested as hiding in Treasury bonds. Now that Treasury bond prices have soared to record highs, Chicken Little has exited Long-term Treasuries. Chicken Little also exited the crypto beachhead from March 2020. 





Previous month's report                 Subsequent month's report




Chicken LittleDow Jones Industrials
2020 (through March)5.73%-22.56%
20199.03%24.82%
20181.27%-3.63%
20174.57%27.72%
2016-1.92%16.08%
2015 (April through Dec)-2.49%-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)16.75%37.73%

1 comment :

  1. This chicken little doesn't trust Truist Bank which recently bought BB&T. At zero % interest on my demand deposits savings, those that panic first panic best.

    It take it you still stand by your PBS interview about bank runs. This is 100 times worse than 2009 or 2014

    ReplyDelete