March 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

 WOLF

"No one believes a liar even when they are telling the truth." -- My favorite line from the boy who cried wolf. The failed US government policies of spending too much and "printing" money must result in financial ruin. I remain 100% bearish.

March 2025 performance

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.03% in March 2025. The Chicken Little Portfolio gained 1.56%. Through the end of March, the Dow has lost 0.94% while the Chicken Little Portfolio has gained 1.36% 

	Mar 2025	YTD 2025
Chicken Little	1.56%	1.36%
Dow Jones Industrials	-4.03%	-0.94%

March 2025 was a mixed month for investors. US stocks and Treasury bonds lost money, while stocks outside the US had modest gains. Bitcoin gave back a bit more, while gold gained almost 10% in the month. Year to date, gold is now by far the highest performer.  Over any longer term period up to ten years, bitcoin has been the best investment. 

Asset	Symbol	Mar 2025	YTD 2025
Dow Jones Industrials	DIA	-4.03%	-0.94%
Non-US Stocks	EFA	0.18%	8.09%
Emerging Market Stocks	EEM	1.81%	5.19%
US Long-Term Bonds	TLT	-1.51%	4.59%
Gold	GLD	9.45%	19.00%
Bitcoin	BTC	-3.34%	-11.84%

Why sell the gold position?

Other than the physical gold that I hold, I sold my precious metals (gold and silver) last week. Why sell the best investment, and keep the worst investment (long-term treasuries)? Keeping winners and selling losers is my general strategy (and the best approach historically). 

I sold my gold for two reasons. First, I continue to believe that the one overriding feature of the coming era will be higher real (inflation adjusted) interest rates. In a high/higher real interest rate environment, gold can do fine, but there will be many ways to make money with cash. Second, the move up in gold has been so extreme, that, at some point, I feel it has to have a significant consolidation phase.   

Below is a 3-year chart of gold versus US stocks (SPY), non-US stocks (EFA), emerging market stocks (EEM), and long-term US government bonds (TLT). Gold has absolutely crushed these other assets, and the gap has been accelerating in recent weeks. 

Gold has crushed Stocks & Bonds 

April 2025 portfolio position

Chicken Little remains positioned for imminent collapse in the stock market with a large short position in US equities. As noted above, I have sold my gold & silver position. I will be looking to re-enter precious metals and bitcoin at lower prices (if they occur). 

Previous month's report          Subsequent Month's report

	Chicken Little	Dow Jones Industrials
2025 (through March)	1.36%	-0.94%
2024	3.30%	14.71%
2023	2.05%	15.80%
2022	-5.88%	-7.06%
2021	5.11%	20.69%
2020	8.04%	9.27%
2019	9.03%	24.82%
2018	1.27%	-3.63%
2017	4.57%	27.72%
2016	-1.92%	16.08%
2015 (April through Dec)	-2.49%	-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)	26.11%	186.85%