February 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The End of a Profligate Era

The raging bull market in US stocks will end, and so will the era of spending and profligacy.  The coming era will reverse many important aspects of life. For some, extremely painful, and, for all, risky because of social upheaval.

From Flappers to Depression

The end of an era

In September 2020, the 10-year German government bond ("bund") yield was negative 0.70%. If you invested 100 Euros, you lost 7 euros over 10 years and got back 93 Euros a decade later.

Today, the rate on the 10-year bund is positive 2.83%. All around the world, interest rates are surging. The era of negative interest rates -- so widespread a few years ago -- looks to be an irrational, historical anomaly.

Chicken Little has long predicted the rise in real interest rates. Real rates will continue to increase, and, consequently, the entire world will change. We are in the early stages of change from profligacy to prudence.

	PROFLIGATE ERA	PRUDENT ERA
mood	take risk	be safe
consumers	buy	save
Route to wealth	borrow	hold cash

February 2025 performance

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.42% in February 2025. The Chicken Little Portfolio gained 0.05%. Through the end of February, the Dow has gained 3.22% while the Chicken Little Portfolio has lost  0.20%. 

	Feb '25	YTD
Chicken Little	0.05%	-0.20%
Dow Jones Industrials	-1.42%	3.22%

February 2025 was a mixed month for investors. US stocks lost money, while stocks outside the US had modest gains. Bitcoin gave back some of its recent gains, while Long-term US government bonds returned over 5% in the month. Year to date, gold is the highest performer, followed by Non-US stocks and then long-term US Treasury bonds. 

Asset	Symbol	Feb '25	YTD
Dow Jones Industrials	DIA	-1.42%	3.22%
Non-US Stocks	EFA	2.95%	7.90%
Emerging Market Stocks	EEM	1.15%	3.32%
US Long-Term Bonds	TLT	5.67%	6.19%
Gold	GLD	1.86%	8.73%
Bitcoin	BTC	-18.10%	-8.80%

March 2025 portfolio position

Chicken Little remains positioned for imminent collapse with a large short position in US equities. No change in position in February 2025.  

Previous month's report          Subsequent Month's report

	Chicken Little	Dow Jones Industrials
2025 (through February)	-0.20%	3.22%
2024	3.30%	14.71%
2023	2.05%	15.80%
2022	-5.88%	-7.06%
2021	5.11%	20.69%
2020	8.04%	9.27%
2019	9.03%	24.82%
2018	1.27%	-3.63%
2017	4.57%	27.72%
2016	-1.92%	16.08%
2015 (April through Dec)	-2.49%	-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)	24.17%	160.56%