Chicken Little's Current thinking

	Price 2/20/21	Long-term	Medium term	Position	Next Investment move
Stocks (Dow)	31,500	Negative	Neutral	Small short - probing action	Short more if bear market begins, buy among the ashes if collapse happens
Bonds (30-year Treasury)	2.13%	Neutral	Negative	Underweight	Reduce underweight when 30-year hits 2.81%, consider liquidation if inflation exceeds 6%
Gold	$1,785	Positive	Negative	Underweight (0%)	Buy if gold makes a new all-time high above $2,000
Crypto (BTC)	$56,500	Positive	Positive	Overweight	Trimming overweight on a calendar basis, buy more on 50% decline

Chicken Little makes bitcoin moves

Six months ago, I wrote, "I cannot believe the low price at a mere $11,700 per bitcoin." As I write this, bitcoin price is over $50,000, up over 50% so far in February (18 days) . Chicken Little has sold about 50% of the crypto position. I have also changed the composition of the crypto position toward "alt coins." 

The barrier to investing success is internal 

Revenge of the Sheriff of Nottingham

The 'Sheriff of Nottingham trade' is to target stocks owned by retail investors. This is the opposite of the 'Reditt rebellion'.

Reddit rebellion - buy stock in companies heavily shorted by hedge funds. 

The Revenge of the Sheriff of Nottingham - sell stock in companies heavily owned by Robinhood'ers. 

The Sheriff may get revenge

January 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The lurking great white shark for financial markets is rising interest rates. Chicken Little believes that the bond market will (eventually) raise the cost for borrowing, and thus end the rally in stocks and other risky assets. Interest rates are still low, but have been rising for some months. 

Higher interest rates may be coming