September 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little Stasis

I am going to continue this blog until the end of the year and then re-evaluate. September 2025 was a month like almost every other one over the past 10 years. Stocks and other risky assets went up in price while scared Chicken Little misses the party.

   

Chicken Little continues to miss the party

August 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little bloodied

The Bull Market continues onwards with daily record highs. Chicken Little has fought the bull for a decade, and lost almost every month. I am ready to capitulate emotionally, but so many of my macro predictions, other than a US stock market decline, have proven prescient, that I am not quite ready to quit. 

Chicken Little beaten up 

July 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

 When will the Dow make a new high?

Last month I wrote, "The Dow Jones Industrials are poised to make a new all-time high. I am likely to end the Chicken Little effort after that new high."  I stand by that statement, but so far the Dow stubbornly refused to take out the high from December of 2024. Here is my performance from inception through last month. 

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June 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The Death of Chicken Little?

Chicken Little has underperformed stocks since I started this blog:

The Dow Jones Industrials are poised to make a new all-time high. I am likely to end the Chicken Little effort after that new high.

May 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little Still Bearish

Here are three important predictions I have made: 

1. The US budget deficit is large and that is a problem. 

2. Interest rates will rise.

3. Bitcoin at $11,700 was a huge buy. 

A stock market decline is next and, subsequently, more social unrest. 

Stocks next, then more social unrest

Re-initiated Short position in US Stocks

Sold stocks; Interest rates up to cycle highs

 

April 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Fire in the Bond Market

Early on April 9, 2025 global bond prices were plummeting, and stock markets were set to crash. Hours later, President Trump paused tariffs; the bond market recovered and global stock markets soared. The Wall Street Journal reported that the bond market influenced President Trump, "I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy.” 

The Bond market was 'yippy' 

March 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

 WOLF

"No one believes a liar even when they are telling the truth." -- My favorite line from the boy who cried wolf. The failed US government policies of spending too much and "printing" money must result in financial ruin. I remain 100% bearish.

February 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The End of a Profligate Era

The raging bull market in US stocks will end, and so will the era of spending and profligacy.  The coming era will reverse many important aspects of life. For some, extremely painful, and, for all, risky because of social upheaval.

From Flappers to Depression

January 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little still scared.

The source of Chicken Little fears is government malfeasance in the form of overspending and loose monetary policy. My prediction was, and remains, rising real interest rates lead to asset market declines. All parts of this thesis have come true except for US stocks. Interest rates around the world up, non-US stocks flat, Chinese housing collapse, but US stocks continue to go up.   

US Stocks are the last risky asset standing

December 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The Sky is (really) going to fall.

It has been almost a decade since I earned the Chicken Little moniker (see post). In that decade, US stocks have produced one of the greatest bull markets in history. After a decade of being wrong about US stocks, I am more afraid of financial collapse than ever.  

The Sky is (really) about to fall 

November 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little still scared of US Debt

The central thesis of Chicken Little has been that massive government debt will cause real interest rates to rise and, consequently, asset prices to fall. I am approaching an entire decade of being wrong about the US stock market, which continues to rise. 

Powerful Bull Market shrugs off Debt