2/18/24

January 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

AI boom or speculative mania?

The stock market goes up every day; Nvidia, Google, Meta, and the rest of the magnificent seven except struggling Tesla. Meanwhile, financial excesses pile up - historic levels of government deficit and debts. Are financial markets anticipating technological improvements or going up because of simple speculation? 

Technological boom or speculative mania? 

1/13/24

December 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

 Chicken Little a failure?

A senior Goldman, Sachs & Co. executive recently said, "I'd be retired if it weren't for Terry Burnham." He is right in that I have been resolutely bearish for more than a decade while risk assets have soared. The best approach would have been to buy crypto, the second best, buy any risky asset, and, pulling up the rear, Chicken Little's portfolio - my real portfolio.  

Chicken Little has been wrong for a decade

12/17/23

November 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance


Time to quit being bearish?
All major asset classes have rallied like crazy since late October. Many individual stocks and some stock indices have hit all-time, history-of-the-world highs. Bears are starving and dying. Is it time for Chicken Little to turn bullish?

Risk Assets are Soaring, Bears are Starving 

11/24/23

October 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Real US interest rates have risen from being below zero to about 2%. This is the start of a longer-term return to tighter financial conditions. In this regime, many common beliefs will change and risk assets will decrease in price. 

Regime change in the US interest rates

10/2/23

September 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance


The debt crises is getting closer. Interest rates are rising rapidly. The cause is simple - overspending. To paraphrase Winston Churchill, "never in the history of the US have so many spent so much of other people's money for breads and circuses." Current deficits are, by far, the largest non-crises deficits in the history of the US. 


9/3/23

August 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

WOLF, wolf, wolf, wolf, wolf!
I have been crying wolf prematurely for a decade. 
Aesop ends the fable of the boy who cried wolf with these lines: 
Q: I cried out, "Wolf!" Why didn't you come? 
A: Nobody believes a liar even when he is telling the truth! 

Protect your sheep

8/2/23

July 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

I have been a Chicken Little for more than a decade fearing payback for overspending and printing money. Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote, "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds." Judge for yourself whether my consistency is foolish or prescient by watching this CNBC video from 2013 (click here for video). 

Little or Big Mind?

7/2/23

June 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Is it time for Chicken Little to give up the bearish view and buy stocks? It certainly feels like time to buy stocks if one watches the stock market rally every day.  


Time to get Bullish?

6/19/23

May 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance


The party in the stock market continues. Interest rates have gone up significantly, but the stock market also continues to rally.  Does Chicken Little have tiny, poorly-functioning bird brain? 

Nominal interest rates are at multi-year highs


5/15/23

April 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance


The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at almost exactly at the same level as a year ago, and also the same level as two years ago. The stock market resilience has Chicken Little thinking. Who is wrong? Me or the stock market? 

Dow at the same level for 2 years


4/3/23

March 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Is there going to be a deflationary debt crisis in the US with high real interest rates? I believe so. The investments to own in a deflationary, and high real interest rate, environment are cash and short term t-bills. Crypto and gold can serve as insurance in situations where it becomes hard to obtain and use cash.

Crisis investments

3/2/23

February 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Rising interest rates will crush the economy and risky assets. This has been my belief for years, and now it is coming true. Look out below. 

Interest rates will crush speculation