January 2026, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

 Bull Market in jeopardy?

Global stock markets remain the last asset class standing. US Treasury bonds have lost half their value. Bitcoin has suffered a 40% decline, the US housing market is weak, and silver lost 40% in 2 trading days. Can stock markets around the world continue to rally? 

December 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

 Bull Market remains strong

In 2025, the bull market in global equities remained powerful, while Chicken Little occasionally left his hiding spot to try to short stocks. Every short effort ending in losses, and 2025 continued the losing approach of Chicken Little. Global interest rates, however, continued to rise, giving me some reason to fear that the sky might still fall.  

2025: Bull Market beats up Chicken Little

November 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Equities: the last market standing.

Global stock markets are among the last major asset classes to prosper. Bond markets globally have been destroyed, Oil is under $60/barrel even with a weak dollar, Bitcoin has lost 30% of its value, and US residential real estate has declined in price over the last year. 

Stocks strong amid other market declines

October 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

AI to pay off the debt?

Can AI, and technology more broadly, make us so rich that we can pay off our massive debts without collapse? US debts and deficits are at record levels. However, if productivity accelerates, we can grow out way out of the problem. There are many anecdotal signs of efficiency gains from AI, but no sign of a productivity boom yet in statistics.

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Robots to the Fiscal Rescue? 

September 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little Stasis

I am going to continue this blog until the end of the year and then re-evaluate. September 2025 was a month like almost every other one over the past 10 years. Stocks and other risky assets went up in price while scared Chicken Little misses the party.

   

Chicken Little continues to miss the party

August 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little bloodied

The Bull Market continues onwards with daily record highs. Chicken Little has fought the bull for a decade, and lost almost every month. I am ready to capitulate emotionally, but so many of my macro predictions, other than a US stock market decline, have proven prescient, that I am not quite ready to quit. 

Chicken Little beaten up 

July 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

 When will the Dow make a new high?

Last month I wrote, "The Dow Jones Industrials are poised to make a new all-time high. I am likely to end the Chicken Little effort after that new high."  I stand by that statement, but so far the Dow stubbornly refused to take out the high from December of 2024. Here is my performance from inception through last month. 

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June 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The Death of Chicken Little?

Chicken Little has underperformed stocks since I started this blog:

The Dow Jones Industrials are poised to make a new all-time high. I am likely to end the Chicken Little effort after that new high.

May 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little Still Bearish

Here are three important predictions I have made: 

1. The US budget deficit is large and that is a problem. 

2. Interest rates will rise.

3. Bitcoin at $11,700 was a huge buy. 

A stock market decline is next and, subsequently, more social unrest. 

Stocks next, then more social unrest

Re-initiated Short position in US Stocks

Sold stocks; Interest rates up to cycle highs

 

April 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Fire in the Bond Market

Early on April 9, 2025 global bond prices were plummeting, and stock markets were set to crash. Hours later, President Trump paused tariffs; the bond market recovered and global stock markets soared. The Wall Street Journal reported that the bond market influenced President Trump, "I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy.” 

The Bond market was 'yippy' 

March 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

 WOLF

"No one believes a liar even when they are telling the truth." -- My favorite line from the boy who cried wolf. The failed US government policies of spending too much and "printing" money must result in financial ruin. I remain 100% bearish.