I have been a Chicken Little for more than a decade fearing payback for overspending and printing money. Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote, "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds." Judge for yourself whether my consistency is foolish or prescient by watching this CNBC video from 2013 (click here for video).
Chicken Little Scorecard
My central prediction has been, and remains, that the party ends with higher real interest rates. Nominal rates have gone up dramatically in the last year. However, rates are not particularly high by historical standards nor when taking into account inflation. So having feared higher rates for more than a decade was definitely very early if not just wrong.
July 2023 performance
Chicken Little is invested in treasury bills so earns a few basis points a month with no risk of loss. In July, the Chicken Little Portfolio gained 38 basis points while the The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.45%. Year to date, Chicken Little is up 1.93%, and the Dow has risen 8.42%.
July 2023 was a broadly positive month for financial assets. Long-term US government bonds lost money in July, and bonds are having the worst year among major asset classes.
Year to date, every major asset class has had positive returns. More speculative investments, such as NASDAQ stocks, and bitcoin, have had much stronger gains.
August 2023 portfolio position
The Chicken Little Portfolio remains prepared for financial disaster. No trades in the month of July so we start August precisely where we started July. T-bills for Chicken Little these days.
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