Global Debt Crisis becomes Obvious
The world has woken up to the problem of global mismanagement of fiscal and monetary policy. The stock market continues to rally. When will higher interest rates cause stocks to fall?
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| The debt mess has been hiding in plain sight |
The World finally sees the Debt Problem
The finance world appears to have finally realized the looming debt crisis. It has been obvious for years, but now it is front page news every day. Recently, the top four stories in the Wall Street Journal were on the topic.
I continue to believe stocks must succumb to higher real interest rates - but the bull market rolls on. Financial markets can ignore facts for years and then adjust rapidly.
August 2026 Portfolio Performance
In August 2026, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.46%, while the Chicken Little Portfolio gained 0.01%. Year to date, Chicken Little has returned 0.82% vs. a gain of 11.50% for the Dow. Stocks continue to climb and Chicken Little keeps losing money by trying to bet against stocks.
| August 2026 | YTD 2026 | |
| Chicken Little | 0.01% | 0.82% |
| Dow Jones Industrials | 1.46% | 11.50% |
July 2026 was a solidly positive month for stocks around the world. Huge month for gold and bitcoin as investors fear the US government is going to inflate its way out of debt; buying gold and crypto is called the 'debasement trade.'
| Asset | Symbol | August 2026 | YTD 2026 |
| Dow Jones Industrials | DIA | 1.46% | 11.50% |
| Non-US Stocks | EFA | 1.74% | 13.60% |
| Emerging Market Stocks | EEM | 5.03% | 24.33% |
| US Long-Term Bonds | TLT | 0.32% | -3.45% |
| Gold | GLD | 9.93% | 3.06% |
| Bitcoin | BTC | 26.43% | -11.09% |
September 2026 portfolio position
Chicken Little Portfolio remains 100% in cash. Looking for an opportunity to short stocks.
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| Chicken Little | Dow Jones Industrials | |
| 2026 (through August) | 0.82% | 11.50% |
| 2025 | -0.03% | 14.56% |
| 2024 | 3.30% | 14.71% |
| 2023 | 2.05% | 15.80% |
| 2022 | -5.88% | -7.06% |
| 2021 | 5.11% | 20.69% |
| 2020 | 8.04% | 9.27% |
| 2019 | 9.03% | 24.82% |
| 2018 | 1.27% | -3.63% |
| 2017 | 4.57% | 27.72% |
| 2016 | -1.92% | 16.08% |
| 2015 (April through Dec) | -2.49% | -0.27% |
| since inception (3/31/15) | 25.41% | 269.87% |
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