Chicken Little is Sick from Volatility; remaining Vigilant

Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 17,908. This is just fractionally lower than where it closed a year ago. 

As with the proverbial duck that is calm above water while paddling furiously below, the year-over-year comparison hides incredible swings. 

Stock Market has had wild swings on the way to nowhere

One year ago, April 13, 2015, the Dow was at 17,977. Over the next month it rose to an all-time high on May 19 of 18,351. (Even though it is superfluous, I like to say the highest point in the history of the world). 

On August 19, 2015, the Dow was just 5% away from its all-time high; in the next 3 trading days, the Dow plunged to 15,370. The Dow rose again to almost record highs before plunging again in February of 2016 to 15,503. 

Today, April 13, 2016, the Dow sits at 17,908, about 2% from a new all-time high in the history of the world. 

Date	DJIA	comment
April 13, 2016	17,908.28
Feb 11, 2016	15,503.01	intra-day low
Aug 24, 2015	15,370.33	intra-day low
Aug 19, 2015	17,517.19	intra-day high
May 19, 2015	18,351.36	all-time high
April 13, 2015	17,977.04

What will happen next? I don't know. I stand by my view that the market is suspect until it makes a new high. 

I believe Central Banks make economies and markets less stable. Furthermore, I believe market ups and downs help the wealthy, financially-sophisticated and connected at the expense of those with less money, less finance training, and fewer connections to powerful people.