August 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Low interest rates cause economic harm and are an indictor of a sick economy. Interest rates in the US continue to collapse toward those in Japan and Germany. Conventional wisdom states that low interest rates "support the economy." This is wrong and dangerous. 

US interest rates are turning Japanese. 

July 2019 Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

July 2019 was a financial calm before the coming storm. Asset markets of all sorts barely moved in July. Underneath this placid performance, trouble lurks in the form of too much debt and a looming financial depression. 

Danger below

June 2019 Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

May 2019 was the best single month in the history of the Chicken Little Portfolio. June 2019 saw some of the biggest changes in the history of the portfolio. Chicken Little exited the Tesla short position, dramatically reduced his long Treasury position, and retained a cryptocurrency beachhead. The baby bear market operation was murdered by Jay Powell. 

Chicken Little prepares for (financial) Armageddon

Bond Yields Collapse: Chicken Little Sells Treasuries

Chicken Little has sold half of his 30-year Treasury Bond position. Treasury bonds have soared in price in recent months; Chicken Little is continuing a multi-year move away from Treasury Bonds. Selling now feels like a bad decision as Treasuries look likely to continue to rise in price for a while as yields continue to collapse toward those of German and Japanese bonds.

Bond Yields have collapsed, Chicken Little is exiting

Chicken Little ends Tesla short campaign

Chicken Little has ended his short Tesla campaign. The campaign started on November 19, 2018 at $364/share (click for article). It ended last week by being stopped out at $220/sh.

Tesla stock has cratered

Baby Bear Market Operations underway

Chicken Little has commenced a modest bear market action, selling the Dow Jones Industrial Average short. The Dow is at 25,250 and the all-time high is 26,951.81. So the trade risks a loss of 7%. 

Baby Bear Market Operations have begun

May 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The Chicken Little Portfolio had its best month so far in May 2019, earning over 5% while the macroeconomic storm builds toward an economic depression. Recall that in April, Chicken Little shorted Tesla and bought crypto (click for article). These April decisions brought May flowers. Bitcoin returned 60% in May, while Tesla lost 22%. 

Are you ready THE DEPRESSION?

President Trump, Testosterone, & Trade Wars

President Trump famously said that trade wars are, 'fun and easy to win.' Research on testosterone suggests that trade wars might, indeed, be fun for President Trump and President Xi.

High Testosterone makes Fighting Fun

April 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

In April 2019, Chicken Little shorted Tesla (again) and bought crypto (again) while waiting for the overall stock market to crash. Tesla has a demand problem, and the world's central banks are printing us to ruin. 

A narrow path to avoid disaster

March 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The mother of all monetary bubbles lies ahead. I predicted this outcome (click for bubble to end all bubbles), and Fed Chair Jay 'the invertebrate' Powell is now implementing the printing plan. In March of 2019, the Chicken Little Portfolio benefited from the early signs of even looser monetary policy ahead. 

Central Banks will print money until disaster hits

The Four Horsemen Will Ride Again

Have the four horsemen of the stockalypse been completely tamed? The US stock market says YES. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sits at 25,888, just below its all-time set on October 3, 2018. While the booming stock market says that the US economy is great, Chicken Little (spoiler alert) sees more pain ahead.

The US stock market is happy

February 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Can you get into fantastic physical shape by watching TV and eating pizza? Can the Wealth of a Nation (to paraphrase Adam Smith) be fostered by deficit spending and printing money? 

Adam Smith is Crying