Lizard brains, dopamine, and cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies replay history


November 2018 chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little continues to believe we are already in the midst of a deflationary depression. The day of reckoning for large government deficits and monetary mischief looms. 

Stocks for the Long Run steams into danger 


Chicken Little is embarrassed

Chicken Little admits to shorting Tesla at $364


Happy 1 month Birthday to the Four Horsemen of the Stockalypse

On October 8, 2018, I warned of the four horsemen of the stockalypse.  These are each significant threats to the economy and the stock market. Just over one month since that post, all of these threats are more dangerous. Meanwhile the US stock market sails along, apparently unconcerned. 

Storm Looms. US investors remain unconcerned.


October 2018 Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

"Is this the beginning?"  This was the subject line of an email that I received from Goldman, Sachs & Co. on October 10, 2018.  No. It may be the end of the beginning. I responded to Goldman, "All asset markets have been going down for years except US stocks. 1:  The depression started more than a decade ago. 2: Four horsemen of the stockalypse."

US equities fall along with global risk assets


Bear raid - part 3

Chicken Little has begun two more bear market actions. A probing sale of US stocks at Dow 25,300, and a purchase of gold at $1,212/oz. This adds to the emerging market stocks bear raid begun last week. More details to come.

Three bear market raids in progress


Bear Market Raid - part 2

Chicken Little has begun a second bear market raid. This is similar to the investments made in the first Bear Market Raid. This time by shorting emerging market stocks, entry point on the EEM at $40.30. More details to come.

Small Bear Action under way


September 2018 Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Recently, the Dow hit an all-time high of 26,951. At the same time, oil, copper, gold, and emerging market stocks have been in a decade-long stealth deflationary depressionThe question has been how long can the Dow resist being pulled down? The answer is that the stockalypse is imminent

US equities will fall


Four Horsemen of the Stockalypse

On October 3, 2018, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an all-time, history of the world, high of 26,951.81. There are four, existential threats to US stocks. Let us call them the four horsemen of the stockalypse.  

Four existential threats to the stock market


Chicken Little Fails for the last time

Dow hits record, surpassing January High 

Chicken Little will never leave his wingman again


The deflationary depression began more than a decade ago

Here is a quiz of your financial knowledge. The task is to recall the peak price (not including dividends) and date of some of the most important financial assets and indices. 

today 9/12/18all time highdate of all -time high
US Stocks - Dow Jones Industrials25,999
Non-US Stocks (EFA)$66.18
Emerging Market Stocks (EEM)$41.44
US Long-Term Treasuries (TLT)$118.94
Gold (per oz.)$1,207
Oil (WTI)$69.25

Answer before looking below.


August 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

At 25,965, the Dow is approaching its all-time high of 26,616. It will be historic if the Dow hits a new all-time high, and equally historic if the Dow fails to hit new high. 

The US stock market is about to make history