Wolf, Wolf, WOLF!
The Wolf is coming? Do you believe me? I have been crying wolf since December of 2009. Just over 12 years of being wrong every day. Wrong for more than a decade, but still confident.
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| WOLF! |
12/14/21
Chicken Little Sells Stocks (Again)
Chicken Little is short US stocks. The short was entered at Dow 35,800 and is 36% of the portfolio. The short will be covered if the Dow makes a new high. The Federal Reserve has laid the groundwork for stagflation and asset markets may be on their way down.
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| Still bearish even though it has been costly |
12/13/21
November 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
In 1958, AW Phillips created the 'Phillips Curve' concept that central banks could print to create a bit more employment at the expense of a bit more inflation. Recently, central banks tried to print a lot more employment, and argued that the 'Phillips curve is not dead." - see Jerome Powell's 2018 article favoring printing. Unfortunately, the mistakes of Central Bank overprinting threaten all of us.
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| The Price of easy money in Venezuela |
11/14/21
October 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Bubblicious
Just when you thought it could not get crazier, it did. Markets exploded up in October 2021. Nassim Taleb tells an anecdote about our failure to predict. When the Lebanese civil war broke out in 1975, some people went to Cypress for the weekend expecting just a few days of trouble. The war lasted over 20 years.
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| The Roaring 20s |
10/20/21
Bull wins again!
Today, October 20, 2021, The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new all-time high. Bull wins again. Score 327-0, bull ahead in long-term series. Chicken Little ends bear campaign after 12 days. When the bear operation started I wrote, "Was Dow 35,625 an historic top in the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Probably not, but possibly." Now we know that the top was not at 35,625.
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| Bull gores bear - on to new all-time highs |
10/12/21
September 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
The Wolf is Still Coming
Chicken Little believes the wolf is merely delayed. 13 years ago, before 'the' financial crisis, US Federal debt was $10 trillion. Today, the US debt is $28 trillion. The Federal Reserve has monetized $7.5 trillion of this sum. So $18 trillion of cumulative deficits financed, in significant part, by printing money. 'The' real crisis lies ahead.
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| In the end, the Wolf ate the Sheep |
10/8/21
Chicken Little Sells Stocks
Chicken Little is no longer not bearish on US stocks. For the last year, Chicken Little has been bullish. See "Chicken Little Respects Dow 30,000" After a 16% rise in the Dow since that bullish post, I have started a bear market operation.
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| Bear Market operations have commenced |
9/17/21
August 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
"A chicken has to know his limitations."
- Clint Eastwood as Inspector Callahan.
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| Chicken Little fears the Wolf |
8/3/21
July 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Financial markets go up every day. Stocks, bonds, real estate all levitated by government deficit spending paid for with money created by central banks. One question is paramount: does the piper need to be paid?
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| The Piper has not been paid |
7/19/21
Crypto & Chicken Little: Three Lessons and the Reality of Investing
Chicken Little has closed all crypto positions. This post looks back at the last 12 months, identifying three lessons, summarizes the messy reality of investing, and looks forward to a return to crypto. (All positions and changes were made public in real time.)
7/14/21
June 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
The Bull market continues without pause. Chicken Little remains in cash. Risk-takers make money, chickens make nothing.
A Lot of Bull
6/29/21
Chicken Little is back into Crypto
Correction in Crypto or end of the Bull Market?
Chicken Little is back buying Crypto. Was the recent sell off the end of the bull market or a correction? Chicken Little is betting it was a correction - the harshest in recent months, but small compared to some corrections in prior cycles.
The conditions favoring crypto remain in place. Mainly the Fed doing its best to end civilization. To restate the obvious, why is the Fed goosing the housing market by buying mortgages when housing is at an all time high, and housing prices are rising at historic rates?
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| The Fed pours gas on the housing fire |