2/16/17

Janet Yellen becomes a data dependent hawk.

Janet Yellen wants to become a hawk. 2017 is the year of the "Yellen Collar". This fact is currently underappreciated by financial markets. 


Accipiter yellenis 


2/14/17

Chicken Little Portfolio Performance January 2017

In January 2017, the Chicken Little Portfolio gained 0.06% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.53%. Chicken Little is feeling more bullish than he has in years, but is not sure whether feeling bullish is a warning sign.
Chicken Little is Feeling Bullish

1/30/17

Chicken Little First Dates: Shorting Gold

On August 11, 2016, Chicken Little broke up with Treasury bonds, and began looking for love elsewhere. 

Consistent with his "Investment Rules," this post describes the third of three first dates for Chicken Little. 


Date #1 was buying US stocks, Date #2 was shorting non-US stocks, Date #3 is shorting gold.  


Chicken Little sells gold short 

1/30/17

The Raging Chicken Little Bull



Chicken Little is Bullish. How bullish? So bullish that he owns stocks, so bullish that he wants the stock market to rally, so bullish you should all be very afraid. 
*Chicken Little is a snorting, rip-roaring bull


1/27/17

DOW 20,000 and Mean Markets

In 2013, I incorrectly predicted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would hit 5,000 before it hit 20,000.

Financial markets can be frustrating and mean. In this case, perhaps the market has a sense of humor. By some strange coincidence, I was at the NYSE on January 25th at the exact moment that I was proven wrong.


At NYSE January 25, 2017 for Dow 20,000! 

I promised a set of excuses and you can read them here: Terry's excuses for being wrong.



1/17/17

Chicken Little Portfolio Performance December 2016

In December 2016, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.08% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.42%.

Chicken Little starts 2017 scared and hiding in Treasury Bonds

12/13/16

The Greenspan Put becomes the Yellen Collar

Wall Street expects the Fed to raise interest rates by a quarter point tomorrow, December 14, 2016. But there is a potential surprise: The world may learn that the Fed wants to raise rates aggressively in 2017 and 2018. This new, more “hawkish” monetary policy may become known as the “Yellen Collar.”




12/8/16

Dow 20,000, and my list of excuses

In 2013, I wrote, " we will see Dow 5,000 before we see Dow 20,000" To make matters worse, I went on CNBC to argue that printing money takes from savers to give to borrowers like the US Government. While creating winners and losers, loose money, I argued, makes the overall pie smaller. 

Today, I am preparing to eat crow. The Dow is less than 2% from 20,000. It is almost mathematically impossible for my prediction to come true. I am preparing my list of excuses, and will publish them at Dow 20000. 


12/7/16

15 Ways Chicken Little Made Money in the Trump Rally

US Stocks have gained almost 10% since Donald Trump was elected. As detailed in previous posts, Chicken owns only a tiny amount of US stocks, which means that he makes almost no money directly from the stock market rally.

So is Chicken Little missing out on the rally? No. At the bottom of this post, there is a list of 15 ways that Chicken Little has made money because of the stock market rally. This article is the reverse of one from January of 2016: 15 Ways Chicken Little Lost Money in the Stock Market Decline

Chicken Little is (indirectly) riding the Wall Street Bull

12/4/16

Economics and Evolutionary Mismatch


Economics is lost. Here is recent academic article of mine that argues for a biological road to a better economics. Economics is lost, in part, by a failure to understand the impact of ancestral urges on behavior in industrialized settings, "Bread, crack cocaine, meat, cell phones, vaccines, cyanide, sleep, and birth control pills are all treated identically by standard economic theory." 


Human nature was shaped in ancestral environments





12/1/16

Chicken Little Portfolio Performance November 2016

In November 2016, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 4.67% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.94%. The US bond market is in the midst of an enormous decline.

President Elect Trump had a HUGE impact on markets

11/29/16

Chicken Little First dates: Shorting Non-US stocks.

On August 11, 2016, Chicken Little broke up with Treasury bonds, and began looking for love elsewhere. A prior post describes buying US stocks - a tough position for a doom-and-gloomer. 

Consistent with his "Investment Rules," this post describes a psychologically easier trade for Chicken Little of shorting Non-US stocks. 


Chicken Little is betting against Stocks Outside the US