6/19/18

How to Win a Bar Fight with the Stock Market


There are a surprising number of websites that will teach you how to win a bar fight. This post translates that 'wisdom' into dealing with the your investments in the stock market with links to previous Chicken Little posts about the stock market. 



6/6/18

May 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

"It's not the money I will miss, it is the things" 
-- Private Judy Benjamin 

The 'Wealth Effect' is the money people spend when they become wealthier, often because of rising stock & housing prices. Will people continue to spend if assets do not rally in 2018? 

2018 may not have a positive wealth effect

5/1/18

April 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The coming great financial storm may be upon us. In the past, I have focused on the probability and characteristics of the coming Financial Depression (e.g., "there will be a massive, historic drop in price for all risk assets"). In this post, I focus on the process of the decline, and the barrier you will face in saving yourself and your family. 

The Great Financial Storm Looms

4/18/18

Men Can be Evil: Economists are often confused

Men fill the world’s prisons, commit most murders, and have started all major wars. In another example of scientists rediscovering ancient truths, a new study of mine documents the costs men impose on (an experimental) society. In the study, status-seeking men are willing to impose enormous costs on others to move up in the hierarchy. 



4/17/18

Initial Bear Market Raid Complete

Chicken Little began a modest bear market raid by shorting US stocks in February. That short position is now closed. The Chicken Little Portfolio made 0.25% on this raid. (6.25% short positions and a ~4% decline in US stocks = 0.25%). While this is a tiny gain, making money on the first short position is great, and works to train the mind to look for more opportunities. The Dow Jones Industrials sits at 24,786 - roughly halfway between the January 26, 2018 high  and the lows of February. Chicken Little anticipates more declines.


Bear Market raid creates taste from more honey

4/3/18

March 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The US stock market has declined 10% since January 26, 2018. Chicken Little predicts further declines. 


A Long Way Down

3/22/18

Break the Buy the Dip Habit

'Buying the dip' - investing new money after stock market declines - has been profitable for almost a decade. However, Chicken Little believes that buying the current dip will be disastrous (see, Chicken Little sees death). Keeping our money safe, however, requires overcoming our own brains.


Don't Buy this Dip 

3/1/18

February 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little has begun a first, baby bear market action. Because a variety of markets were weak in February, the odds that January 26, 2018 was the top have increased. Accordingly, Chicken Little has begun a first probing bear market action. (Follow up: this bear market raid ended in April 2018.)


Chicken Little makes a first bear market move

2/6/18

January 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

In January 2018, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 1.66% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained an amazing 5.74%.

"This is the Top" - January 25, 2018 - Chicken Little 

1/25/18

Chicken Litttle is not bullish on US stocks

Chicken Little has been bullish on US stocks for a year and a half. As of January 25, 2018, Chicken Little is no longer bullish. 


Chicken Little is no longer bullish on US stocks.

1/15/18

Chicken Little exits Crypto currencies (again)

Chicken Little has exited cryptocurrencies after a second round of trading (see cyrpto post 2, crypto post 1). Winning at Vegas in a gambler's first visit is said to be a curse as it is hard not to return. For now, Chicken Little has no plans to re-enter for a third time. 

100% returns flood the brain with dopamine


1/5/18

A- for 2017 Chicken Little Portfolio performance (self-graded)

A-

I give the Chicken Little Portfolio a grade of A- for 2017. Wrong every day of the year on macro predictions, and still managed to beat out a decent return with disciplined, low-risk approach. Also, made a few bucks buying cryptocurrencies.