August 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Perform

Chicken Little still Scared

It has been almost 10 years since my friend Paul Solman of PBS named me the 'chicken little of finance.' A decade later, I continue to fear that government malfeasance, in the form of loose money and too much spending, will create financial havoc. So far, the stock market is unconcerned. 

Chicken Little approaching 10th birthday

July 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Can AI pay Government debts?

The US Government is overspending at an historic rate. Chicken Little believes the most likely end-game is for the bond market to choke off overspending by a rise in real interest rates. However, it is possible that AI, and technology generally, will make us so much richer that we can afford government spending and thereby avoid disaster. 

Can AI feed the US Government?

June 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Long-Term interest rates are rising

Chicken Little has been completely wrong about the US stock market for close to a decade. My central thesis has been, and remains, that real interest rates will rise, and asset prices will fall. While I have been completely wrong about stocks, I have been right about interest rates. 

US Debt with (eventually) crush asset prices

May 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Can AI save us from Government profligacy?

The bull case for the economy and asset markets is that technology, particularly Artificial Intelligence, will save the financial day. The US government is overspending at an historic rate and, consequently, the cumulative US debt is at historic highs - exceeding the Debt/GDP levels at the end of World War II. Who will win? So far, AI. 

Robots to the Rescue? 

April 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The Frog in the Pot?

The Chicken Little thesis remains unchanged for nearly a decade. That US Federal government, and non-US central banks, have taken actions that will cause a crisis. Overspending and e-printing money lead to short term (or medium term) positives with enormous risk. Real interest rates will, in this view, continue to rise until the crisis strikes. 

Rising real interest rates will kill the economy 

March 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Missing out on free money?

The Bull Market continued through the end of March 2024. Chicken Little remains scared of financial doom and continues to miss out on huge gains in the stock market. The pain trade remains painful. 

Bear (and chickens) are hungry 

February 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

 Crypto to the moon?

Tech stocks go up every day. As great as the returns to stocks have been, however, bitcoin and other cryptos are the best performing assets over almost any time period. Year to date, 1-year, 5-year, 10-year. Is crypto a safety asset or a risk asset?

Crypto challenges all-time highs

 

January 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

AI boom or speculative mania?

The stock market goes up every day; Nvidia, Google, Meta, and the rest of the magnificent seven except struggling Tesla. Meanwhile, financial excesses pile up - historic levels of government deficit and debts. Are financial markets anticipating technological improvements or going up because of simple speculation? 

Technological boom or speculative mania? 

December 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

 Chicken Little a failure?

A senior Goldman, Sachs & Co. executive recently said, "I'd be retired if it weren't for Terry Burnham." He is right in that I have been resolutely bearish for more than a decade while risk assets have soared. The best approach would have been to buy crypto, the second best, buy any risky asset, and, pulling up the rear, Chicken Little's portfolio - my real portfolio.  

Chicken Little has been wrong for a decade

November 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Time to quit being bearish?

All major asset classes have rallied like crazy since late October. Many individual stocks and some stock indices have hit all-time, history-of-the-world highs. Bears are starving and dying. Is it time for Chicken Little to turn bullish?

Risk Assets are Soaring, Bears are Starving 

October 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Real US interest rates have risen from being below zero to about 2%. This is the start of a longer-term return to tighter financial conditions. In this regime, many common beliefs will change and risk assets will decrease in price. 

Regime change in the US interest rates

September 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The debt crises is getting closer. Interest rates are rising rapidly. The cause is simple - overspending. To paraphrase Winston Churchill, "never in the history of the US have so many spent so much of other people's money for breads and circuses." Current deficits are, by far, the largest non-crises deficits in the history of the US.