Re-initiated Short position in US Stocks

Sold stocks; Interest rates up to cycle highs

 

April 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Fire in the Bond Market

Early on April 9, 2025 global bond prices were plummeting, and stock markets were set to crash. Hours later, President Trump paused tariffs; the bond market recovered and global stock markets soared. The Wall Street Journal reported that the bond market influenced President Trump, "I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy.” 

The Bond market was 'yippy' 

March 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

 WOLF

"No one believes a liar even when they are telling the truth." -- My favorite line from the boy who cried wolf. The failed US government policies of spending too much and "printing" money must result in financial ruin. I remain 100% bearish.

February 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The End of a Profligate Era

The raging bull market in US stocks will end, and so will the era of spending and profligacy.  The coming era will reverse many important aspects of life. For some, extremely painful, and, for all, risky because of social upheaval.

From Flappers to Depression

January 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little still scared.

The source of Chicken Little fears is government malfeasance in the form of overspending and loose monetary policy. My prediction was, and remains, rising real interest rates lead to asset market declines. All parts of this thesis have come true except for US stocks. Interest rates around the world up, non-US stocks flat, Chinese housing collapse, but US stocks continue to go up.   

US Stocks are the last risky asset standing

December 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The Sky is (really) going to fall.

It has been almost a decade since I earned the Chicken Little moniker (see post). In that decade, US stocks have produced one of the greatest bull markets in history. After a decade of being wrong about US stocks, I am more afraid of financial collapse than ever.  

The Sky is (really) about to fall 

November 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little still scared of US Debt

The central thesis of Chicken Little has been that massive government debt will cause real interest rates to rise and, consequently, asset prices to fall. I am approaching an entire decade of being wrong about the US stock market, which continues to rise. 

Powerful Bull Market shrugs off Debt

October 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Still out of sync with markets

Chicken Little continues to fear a debt crisis. Meanwhile financial markets of many types continue to soar. 

Chicken Little fails while other get rich 

September 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Right but still Wrong

'No one believes a liar even when they are telling the truth.' 

        - The boy who cried wolf 

Many of my macroeconomic fears are now widely recognized, but markets do not appear worried. I continue to believe that US government overspending and Federal Reserve failures will lead to economic disaster. I remain essentially alone in crying wolf. 

Wolf! 

August 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little still Scared

It has been almost 10 years since my friend Paul Solman of PBS named me the 'chicken little of finance.' A decade later, I continue to fear that government malfeasance, in the form of loose money and too much spending, will create financial havoc. So far, the stock market is unconcerned. 

Chicken Little approaching 10th birthday

July 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Can AI pay Government debts?

The US Government is overspending at an historic rate. Chicken Little believes the most likely end-game is for the bond market to choke off overspending by a rise in real interest rates. However, it is possible that AI, and technology generally, will make us so much richer that we can afford government spending and thereby avoid disaster. 

Can AI feed the US Government?

June 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Long-Term interest rates are rising

Chicken Little has been completely wrong about the US stock market for close to a decade. My central thesis has been, and remains, that real interest rates will rise, and asset prices will fall. While I have been completely wrong about stocks, I have been right about interest rates. 

US Debt with (eventually) crush asset prices