October 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

 Bubblicious

Just when you thought it could not get crazier, it did. Markets exploded up in October 2021. Nassim Taleb tells an anecdote about our failure to predict. When the Lebanese civil war broke out in 1975, some people went to Cypress for the weekend expecting just a few days of trouble. The war lasted over 20 years. 

The Roaring 20s

Bull wins again!

Today, October 20, 2021, The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new all-time high. Bull wins again. Score 327-0, bull ahead in long-term series. Chicken Little ends bear campaign after 12 days. When the bear operation started I wrote, "Was Dow 35,625 an historic top in the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Probably not, but possibly." Now we know that the top was not at 35,625.  

Bull gores bear - on to new all-time highs 

September 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The Wolf is Still Coming

Chicken Little believes the wolf is merely delayed. 13 years ago, before 'the' financial crisis, US Federal debt was $10 trillion. Today, the US debt is $28 trillion. The Federal Reserve has monetized $7.5 trillion of this sum. So $18 trillion of cumulative deficits financed, in significant part, by printing money.  'The' real crisis lies ahead. 

In the end, the Wolf ate the Sheep

Chicken Little Sells Stocks

Chicken Little is no longer not bearish on US stocks. For the last year, Chicken Little has been bullish. See "Chicken Little Respects Dow 30,000" After a 16% rise in the Dow since that bullish post, I have started a bear market operation. 

Bear Market operations have commenced

August 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

"A chicken has to know his limitations." 

    - Clint Eastwood as Inspector Callahan.  

Chicken Little fears the Wolf

July 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Financial markets go up every day. Stocks, bonds, real estate all levitated by government deficit spending paid for with money created by central banks. One question is paramount: does the piper need to be paid? 

The Piper has not been paid

Crypto & Chicken Little: Three Lessons and the Reality of Investing

Chicken Little has closed all crypto positions. This post looks back at the last 12 months, identifying three lessons, summarizes the messy reality of investing, and looks forward to a return to crypto. (All positions and changes were made public in real time.) 

June 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The Bull market continues without pause. Chicken Little remains in cash. Risk-takers make money, chickens make nothing. 

A Lot of Bull

Chicken Little is back into Crypto

Correction in Crypto or end of the Bull Market?

Chicken Little is back buying Crypto. Was the recent sell off the end of the bull market or a correction?  Chicken Little is betting it was a correction - the harshest in recent months, but small compared to some corrections in prior cycles. 

The conditions favoring crypto remain in place. Mainly the Fed doing its best to end civilization. To restate the obvious, why is the Fed goosing the housing market by buying mortgages when housing is at an all time high, and housing prices are rising at historic rates?   

The Fed pours gas on the housing fire

May 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little remains terrified. Financial markets show no overt signs of trouble. The economy is growing rapidly. The party continues without Chicken Little who shuns risk, makes no money, and frets about the end of civilization. 

Chicken Little worries about his offspring

Chicken Little has Chicken Hands

Chicken Little has the opposite of Diamond Hands. Investors with Diamond hands hold during declines. At the first sign of adversity, Chicken Little runs away. As of May 1, 2021, Chicken Little had taken on a lot of risk - almost 6% of the portfolio in stocks and crypto combined (see post). That risk has been reduced to zero. Run away today to live to be terrified another day. 

Chicken Little has run away from crypto

 

Chicken Little's lessons from the Crypto Crash of May 2021

Bitcoin dropped from $65,000 to $30,000 in recent weeks. What did I learn from this drop? 

A teachable moment