12/16/17

Chicken Little makes a *Newtonian mistake?

Chicken Little has bought more cryptocurrencies. In doing so, he may be making a Newtonian mistake with an asterisk. Sir Isaac Newton was the smartest man alive in his era. He invested in the what became known as the South Sea Bubble, made some money and exited. However, as the bubble soared, Newton re-invested and lost a substantial sum -- more than his original profit.  


Chicken Little Dives back into Cryptocurrencies


12/4/17

She who understands the fruit fly would do more for economics than Adam Smith

“He who understands baboon would do more towards metaphysics than Locke” – Charles Darwin, Notebooks

I am continuing my work using experimental evolution to improve economics (previous post here). I label this one of the greatest long-shots in the history of science. My new paper here: She who understands the fruit fly would do more for economics than Adam Smith.

Slime mould in experimental evolution study on risk-taking


12/1/17

November 2017, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

In November 2017, the Chicken Little Portfolio gained 0.17% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average roared 4.12%.

Investing requires emotional intelligence. Particularly in the form of patience. Chicken Little is very negative on risk assets, but has learned the importance of momentum.


Chicken Little is waiting to commence bear market operations

11/17/17

Preparing for Bear Market Operations

The current bull market began in March 2009. In this post, Chicken Little is preparing for his first Bear Market Operation in many years. This post is similar to the successful "Criteria for Bullishness" article for 18 months ago.

The premise of Bear Market Operations is that there will be a massive, historic drop in price for all risk assets - stocks, real estate, and (almost) all bonds. Most people will be financially ruined by this bear market. 


A  Plan for Waking the Sleeping Bear

11/5/17

October 2017, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

In October 2017, the Chicken Little Portfolio gained 0.27% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 4.39%.

Chicken Little has cleared the figurative decks by selling all risk assets in the portfolio. These investments in cryptocurrencies and equities were small, but significant from a psychological perspective. Clearing the deck of risk assets prepares the portfolio for a harsher financial environment.


Lord Nelson was killed here, Chicken Little now lives here

10/11/17

September 2017, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

In September 2017, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 1.62% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.14%.

Chicken Little is focused on one economic issue. Can the US economy, and stock market, handle a sustained rise in interest rates, albeit from historically low levels? At the end of last year, I predicted that the US Federal Reserve would keep tightening monetary policy until the stock market stopped climbing. I label this idea as The Yellen Collar

Will the economy be able to handle tighter money?

9/17/17

August 2017, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

In August 2017, the Chicken Little Portfolio gained 1.74% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.61%. The annus mirabilis continues for investors as all assets go up in price, almost every day.

2017, Annus mirabilis for investors

9/1/17

Chicken Little Feels the pain of "opportunity loss"

Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies have doubled -- 100% return - since Chicken Little made his purchase in May. See May post here. How does Chicken Little feel about making a 100% return in 3 months? 

Terrible. 

"Opportunity Cost" is the economic term for missed opportunity. I label the pain of owning too little of a winning investment as "Opportunity Loss."  Investing is a tough game. Losing money hurts. Making money also hurts when others are making more. 

Chicken Little feels the pain of not owning enough crytpo

8/23/17

July 2017, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

In July 2017, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.10% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.77%.

The best investment of 2017 has been cryptocurrencies. There are close to 1,000 different types of 'coin.' The most famous being Bitcoin and Ethereum. Chicken Little made a tiny investment in cryptocurrencies in May 2017.

Are your ready (player one) for cryptocurrencies? 

7/6/17

Chicken Little Portfolio Performance June 2017

In June 2017, the Chicken Little Portfolio gained 0.21% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.71%. While financial conditions remain forgiving there are hints of a cold wind blowing in the form of rising interest rates. Recall, Chicken Little's warnings on interest rates from last year.

September 19, 2016: Japanese bonds will fall.
August 11, 2016: A darker future for US Treasury bonds.


Winter may be coming to the world's bond markets

6/12/17

Chicken Little Portfolio Performance May 2017

In May 2017, the Chicken Little Portfolio gained 0.95% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.73%. Overall financial markets remain forgiving; every asset class tracked by Chicken Little is having a great year.

One piece of news for Chicken Little -- the first purchase of ethereum and other cryptocurrencies.


Chicken Little has entered the world of cryptocurrencies

5/1/17

Chicken Little Portfolio Performance April 2017

In April 2017, the Chicken Little Portfolio gained 0.97% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.49%. Overall financial markets remain forgiving; every asset goes up in price, almost every day.


Image result for too easy
Financial Markets have been *very* friendly in 2017