9/19/16

Regime Shift in the Bond Market - Japanese Bond Market

Chicken Little is scared of his own shadow. In this post, however, Chicken Little makes the reckless prediction that the bull market in Japanese bonds is over. 

Betting against the Japanese bond market is known as the 'widowmaker' trade because it has bankrupted so many famous investors. Has Chicken Little found a bit of courage or gone insane?


Chicken Little takes a path that has destroyed many others 

9/1/16

Chicken Little Portfolio Performance August 2016

In August 2016, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.65% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.25%.

8/31/16

Chicken Little an Investment Crank?

A brief update on the success (failure) of my blog. I began the blog a couple years ago, and I love writing the articles. I love writing them so much that I reward myself after finishing an unpleasant task by allowing myself time to write a post. 

Readership of the blog has increased from nothing to modestly more than nothing. However, I just discovered that some of this increase may be for the wrong reasons.

Is Chicken Little a Crank?

8/11/16

Chicken Little sees the end of his love affair with Treasury Bonds



Chicken Little has been in love with Treasury Bonds for a decade. Now, in a betrayal of that love, Chicken Little has sold some Treasury Bonds. Furthermore, Chicken Little will not buy any more 30-year Treasury Bonds for the foreseeable future. This post has three parts. 

1. Treasury Bonds have been an amazing investment
2. The Future of Treasury Bonds is worse than the Past
3. Chicken Little is looking for new investment love 

Chicken Little's Love for Treasury Bonds is Waning

7/31/16

Chicken Little Portfolio Performance July 2016

In July 2016, the Chicken Little Portfolio gained 0.59% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.90%.
Central Banks make investing appear easy

7/14/16

Chicken Little Buys US stocks

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit new all-time highs this week. Chicken Little bought stocks to cover a small short position in US stocks. This note has three parts. 

1. Why buy stocks at Dow 18,352 after selling at a lower level?
2. Chicken Little's updated investment advice.
3. The Chicken Little road ahead.

Chicken Little is Powerless against Central Bank Money Printing

7/7/16

The Coming Monetary Bubble to End all Monetary Bubbles

Global monetary policy in the developed world is the loosest it has been since the German hyperinflation after World War I. That is, central banks in America, Europe and Japan have been printing money like mad.

Expect more Central Bank Printing of Money
I predict, moreover, that we haven’t seen anything yet; the world’s central banks are likely to vastly increase their money creation, resulting in the biggest monetary bubble ever, with perhaps $100 trillion more new money on its way into the global economy. This prediction is not specifically tied to Brexit, the U.K’s vote to leave the European Union. However, we’ll discuss Brexit below in the context of printing money.

6/30/16

Chicken Little Portfolio Performance June 2016

In June 2016, the Chicken Little Portfolio gained 4.05% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.00%.
Central Banks Print Money at Historic Pace

6/28/16

Brexit and Chicken Little


What is the impact of Brexit on Chicken Little's view of the financial world? 

Kiss Goodbye? 

The answer is Brexit changes nothing for Chicken Little. 

When you are terrified, it is hard to get more terrified. Here is a summary of Chicken Little's current thinking. 

6/13/16

Stockholm Syndrome revisited


My first article on printing money was published in 2013 on the PBS making Sen$e page.  Apparently, I have learned nothing in three years as this article still summarizes my current views.

The Original Stockholm Syndrome

6/1/16

Chicken Little Portfolio Performance May 2016

In May 2016, the Chicken Little Portfolio gained 0.25% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.38%.

5/18/16

Chicken Little's Criteria for becoming Bullish

In his 1963 essay, Sir Karl Popper writes, "the scientific status of a theory is its falsifiability, or refutability, or testability."

Sir Karl Popper 
Chicken Little's ramblings are not a scientific theory. However, in a Popperian spirit, I examine five criteria, which would make Chicken Little bullish.