April 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Equity markets bounced 33% off their March 2020 lows. Chicken Little believes that the mother of all bear markets deserves a world class bear market rally. Broad economic pain cannot be stopped by government overspending and e-printing. Look out below. 

Bear Market bounce (click for video) 

Chicken Little's Criteria for Buying Stocks

When will it be time to buy stocks?  

From 1982 until 2000, I was at least 100% invested in stocks. My Chicken Little persona is temporary. I am looking forward to returning to 1980's style Mega Bull. In this post, I revisit the criteria for a major stock market buying opportunity from Mean Markets & Lizard Brains.

Chicken Little will become Mega Bull

March 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The Covid-19 storm hit in 2020. The world was financially unprepared having squandered a decade of prosperity (see empty Rainy Day fund).  For example, in 1929 the US debt/GDP ratio was 16% of GDP; today US debt is 107% of GDP. Now, individuals will pay the price for government folly in multiple ways. 

The storm came and the government was unprepared

Is the Market Scared of Big US Deficits?

In the last two weeks, every asset has gone down. For sure, risky assets including stocks have gone down broadly this month, but the 'safety assets' of gold, bitcoin, and long-treasuries have also declined. I have long predicted that the end game of our current government folly will happen when the market cuts the US off from easy money (for example, HUGE deficits & Bond yields collapse).  We will see if the end game is here. 

The End Game will be rising Real Interest Rates

The Rainy Day Fund is Empty

The US economy has boomed for 11 years. The gains from that boom have been squandered, and we are not prepared for hard times. 

The Rainy Day fund is empty

February 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Since 2015, Chicken Little was hiding in Treasury bonds fearing a Japanese/German style collapse in bond yields (see 'turning Japanese' for one of many articles).  Now that this nightmare of low US interest rates is a reality, what is next? First, the mother of all monetary bubbles, and then second, the imposition of discipline from the financial markets.

The bull market is built on e-printing and spending

January 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

If you need to hide 25% of your assets to avoid inflation or confiscation, do you have the tools? If not, a crypto beachhead might be a good idea.  Chicken Little has made three successful cryptocurrency raids (1, 2, 3). A raid is temporary by design. A beachhead, in contrast, is persistent and can be expanded. 

Chicken Little has established a crypto beachhead

Five Important Mistakes of College Students

By Professors Jay Phelan and Terry Burnham

Be a better student

December 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

December 2019 was a great month for investors ending an annus mirabilis - Latin for a miraculous, remarkable, and auspicious year. Every risky investment paid off in 2019, ranging from bitcoin, gold, treasury bonds to emerging market stocks. Paraphrasing War Games, the only way to lose, was not to play in 2019.

2019 Free Money for Investors

Donnie Brasco Investment Returns

Are you unhappy with your investment returns? 

The Dow sits at over 28,000, gold is up 20% this year, 30-year Treasury bonds have earned 15%, and bitcoin has doubled.  Are you getting your piece of easy money pie? If not, it is the fault of the Donnie Brasco investment world. 

It is a Donnie Brasco Investment World

November 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

November 2019 was a breakout month for US stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average set eight all-time record highs, and closed above 28,000 for the first time in history.  The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates and printing money at historic rates. So far, the Fed has succeeded in inflating asset prices. 

The Federal Reserve has resumed e-printing

October 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

October was another month of waiting. Lots of ups and down, but almost zero movement. The Fed has cut rates three times so far this year. six more and we will be at Depression level zero interest rates. 

Still Waiting