October 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

October was another month of waiting. Lots of ups and down, but almost zero movement. The Fed has cut rates three times so far this year. six more and we will be at Depression level zero interest rates. 

Still Waiting


US Deficits can become HUGE


September 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

“Nothing happens. Nobody comes, nobody goes. It's awful.”  -Samuel Beckett. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 26,500-- the same level as in January 2018. Almost two years with ups and downs, but no overall movement.  Chicken Little continues to believe the boredom will be replaced with mayhem. 

Waiting for the Debt Crisis


August 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Low interest rates cause economic harm and are an indictor of a sick economy. Interest rates in the US continue to collapse toward those in Japan and Germany. Conventional wisdom states that low interest rates "support the economy." This is wrong and dangerous. 

US interest rates are turning Japanese. 


July 2019 Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

July 2019 was a financial calm before the coming storm. Asset markets of all sorts barely moved in July. Underneath this placid performance, trouble lurks in the form of too much debt and a looming financial depression. 

Danger below


June 2019 Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

May 2019 was the best single month in the history of the Chicken Little Portfolio. June 2019 saw some of the biggest changes in the history of the portfolio. Chicken Little exited the Tesla short position, dramatically reduced his long Treasury position, and retained a cryptocurrency beachhead. The baby bear market operation was murdered by Jay Powell. 

Chicken Little prepares for (financial) Armageddon


Bond Yields Collapse: Chicken Little Sells Treasuries

Chicken Little has sold half of his 30-year Treasury Bond position. Treasury bonds have soared in price in recent months; Chicken Little is continuing a multi-year move away from Treasury Bonds. Selling now feels like a bad decision as Treasuries look likely to continue to rise in price for a while as yields continue to collapse toward those of German and Japanese bonds.
Bond Yields have collapsed, Chicken Little is exiting


Chicken Little ends Tesla short campaign

Chicken Little has ended his short Tesla campaign. The campaign started on November 19, 2018 at $364/share (click for article). It ended last week by being stopped out at $220/sh.

Tesla stock has cratered


Baby Bear Market Operations underway

Chicken Little has commenced a modest bear market action, selling the Dow Jones Industrial Average short. The Dow is at 25,250 and the all-time high is 26,951.81. So the trade risks a loss of 7%. 

Baby Bear Market Operations have begun


May 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The Chicken Little Portfolio had its best month so far in May 2019, earning over 5% while the macroeconomic storm builds toward an economic depression. Recall that in April, Chicken Little shorted Tesla and bought crypto (click for article). These April decisions brought May flowers. Bitcoin returned 60% in May, while Tesla lost 22%. 

Are you ready THE DEPRESSION?


President Trump, Testosterone, & Trade Wars

President Trump famously said that trade wars are, 'fun and easy to win.' Research on testosterone suggests that trade wars might, indeed, be fun for President Trump and President Xi.

High Testosterone makes Fighting Fun


April 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

In April 2019, Chicken Little shorted Tesla (again) and bought crypto (again) while waiting for the overall stock market to crash. Tesla has a demand problem, and the world's central banks are printing us to ruin. 
A narrow path to avoid disaster