10/12/21

September 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The Wolf is Still Coming

Chicken Little believes the wolf is merely delayed. 13 years ago, before 'the' financial crisis, US Federal debt was $10 trillion. Today, the US debt is $28 trillion. The Federal Reserve has monetized $7.5 trillion of this sum. So $18 trillion of cumulative deficits financed, in significant part, by printing money.  'The' real crisis lies ahead. 

In the end, the Wolf ate the Sheep

10/8/21

Chicken Little Sells Stocks

Chicken Little is no longer not bearish on US stocks. For the last year, Chicken Little has been bullish. See "Chicken Little Respects Dow 30,000" After a 16% rise in the Dow since that bullish post, I have started a bear market operation. 

Bear Market operations have commenced

9/17/21

August 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

"A chicken has to know his limitations." 
    - Clint Eastwood as Inspector Callahan.  

Chicken Little fears the Wolf

8/3/21

July 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Financial markets go up every day. Stocks, bonds, real estate all levitated by government deficit spending paid for with money created by central banks. One question is paramount: does the piper need to be paid? 

The Piper has not been paid

7/19/21

Crypto & Chicken Little: Three Lessons and the Reality of Investing


Chicken Little has closed all crypto positions. This post looks back at the last 12 months, identifying three lessons, summarizes the messy reality of investing, and looks forward to a return to crypto. (All positions and changes were made public in real time.) 

7/14/21

June 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The Bull market continues without pause. Chicken Little remains in cash. Risk-takers make money, chickens make nothing. 

A Lot of Bull

6/29/21

Chicken Little is back into Crypto

Correction in Crypto or end of the Bull Market?


Chicken Little is back buying Crypto. Was the recent sell off the end of the bull market or a correction?  Chicken Little is betting it was a correction - the harshest in recent months, but small compared to some corrections in prior cycles. 

The conditions favoring crypto remain in place. Mainly the Fed doing its best to end civilization. To restate the obvious, why is the Fed goosing the housing market by buying mortgages when housing is at an all time high, and housing prices are rising at historic rates?   
The Fed pours gas on the housing fire



6/12/21

May 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little remains terrified. Financial markets show no overt signs of trouble. The economy is growing rapidly. The party continues without Chicken Little who shuns risk, makes no money, and frets about the end of civilization. 

Chicken Little worries about his offspring

5/21/21

Chicken Little has Chicken Hands


Chicken Little has the opposite of Diamond Hands. Investors with Diamond hands hold during declines. At the first sign of adversity, Chicken Little runs away. As of May 1, 2021, Chicken Little had taken on a lot of risk - almost 6% of the portfolio in stocks and crypto combined (see post). That risk has been reduced to zero. Run away today to live to be terrified another day. 
Chicken Little has run away from crypto




 

5/19/21

Chicken Little's lessons from the Crypto Crash of May 2021

Bitcoin dropped from $65,000 to $30,000 in recent weeks. What did I learn from this drop? 

A teachable moment


5/13/21

April 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little stays true to form. Asset markets continue to climb. Chicken Little continues to fear the sky falling in the form of higher interest rates ahead. 

Chicken Little sees nothing but clouds

4/23/21

Buying a little Crypto - still for Defense

Chicken Little is buying crypto today at Bitcoin $48,000 and Ethereum $2,200. Chicken Little's crypto position is mainly a defense against central bank printing - not a speculation to make US dollars. Modest purchases today after selling the position down by about 75% in recent months - see previous posts on selling - Feb 18 sell crypto, March - 'temporarily pulled back on crypto'.