The Death of Chicken Little?
Chicken Little has underperformed stocks since I started this blog:
The Dow Jones Industrials are poised to make a new all-time high. I am likely to end the Chicken Little effort after that new high.
6/8/25
May 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Chicken Little Still Bearish
Here are three important predictions I have made:
A stock market decline is next and, subsequently, more social unrest.
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| Stocks next, then more social unrest |
5/6/25
April 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Fire in the Bond Market
Early on April 9, 2025 global bond prices were plummeting, and stock markets were set to crash. Hours later, President Trump paused tariffs; the bond market recovered and global stock markets soared. The Wall Street Journal reported that the bond market influenced President Trump, "I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy.”
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| The Bond market was 'yippy' |
4/2/25
March 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
WOLF
"No one believes a liar even when they are telling the truth." -- My favorite line from the boy who cried wolf. The failed US government policies of spending too much and "printing" money must result in financial ruin. I remain 100% bearish.
3/6/25
February 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
The End of a Profligate Era
The raging bull market in US stocks will end, and so will the era of spending and profligacy. The coming era will reverse many important aspects of life. For some, extremely painful, and, for all, risky because of social upheaval.
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| From Flappers to Depression |
2/7/25
January 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Chicken Little still scared.
The source of Chicken Little fears is government malfeasance in the form of overspending and loose monetary policy. My prediction was, and remains, rising real interest rates lead to asset market declines. All parts of this thesis have come true except for US stocks. Interest rates around the world up, non-US stocks flat, Chinese housing collapse, but US stocks continue to go up.
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| US Stocks are the last risky asset standing |
1/8/25
December 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
The Sky is (really) going to fall.
It has been almost a decade since I earned the Chicken Little moniker (see post). In that decade, US stocks have produced one of the greatest bull markets in history. After a decade of being wrong about US stocks, I am more afraid of financial collapse than ever.
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| The Sky is (really) about to fall |
12/14/24
November 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Chicken Little still scared of US Debt
The central thesis of Chicken Little has been that massive government debt will cause real interest rates to rise and, consequently, asset prices to fall. I am approaching an entire decade of being wrong about the US stock market, which continues to rise.
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| Powerful Bull Market shrugs off Debt |
11/12/24
October 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Still out of sync with markets
Chicken Little continues to fear a debt crisis. Meanwhile financial markets of many types continue to soar.
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| Chicken Little fails while other get rich |
10/13/24
September 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Right but still Wrong
'No one believes a liar even when they are telling the truth.'
- The boy who cried wolf
Many of my macroeconomic fears are now widely recognized, but markets do not appear worried. I continue to believe that US government overspending and Federal Reserve failures will lead to economic disaster. I remain essentially alone in crying wolf.
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| Wolf! |
9/12/24
August 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Chicken Little still Scared
It has been almost 10 years since my friend Paul Solman of PBS named me the 'chicken little of finance.' A decade later, I continue to fear that government malfeasance, in the form of loose money and too much spending, will create financial havoc. So far, the stock market is unconcerned.
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| Chicken Little approaching 10th birthday |