Have the four horsemen of the stockalypse been completely tamed? The US stock market says YES. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sits at 25,888, just below its all-time set on October 3, 2018. While the booming stock market says that the US economy is great, Chicken Little (spoiler alert) sees more pain ahead.


The US stock market is happy

3/2/19

February 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Can you get into fantastic physical shape by watching TV and eating pizza? Can the Wealth of a Nation (to paraphrase Adam Smith) be fostered by deficit spending and printing money? 

Adam Smith is Crying

2/5/19

January 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance


The US Federal Reserve has promised to print as much money as necessary to support the stock market (google search 'Jay Powell invertebrate'). Chicken Little believes that monetary and fiscal madness will end in ruin.  
Chicken Little sees pain ahead

1/12/19

Chicken Little sells the f'in rip




Get out of your Skinner Box



1/6/19

December 2018 Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

On October 8, 2018, I wrote "We sit less than 2% from an all-time high in the Dow, priced for perfection on the precipice of ruin." A modest ruin followed this prescient warning, and the Chicken Little portfolio was positioned correctly to make money from the decline. 


Risk assets plummeted in late 2018

12/10/18

Lizard brains, dopamine, and cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies replay history

12/6/18

November 2018 chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little continues to believe we are already in the midst of a deflationary depression. The day of reckoning for large government deficits and monetary mischief looms. 


Stocks for the Long Run steams into danger 

11/19/18

Chicken Little is embarrassed

Chicken Little admits to shorting Tesla at $364

11/10/18

Happy 1 month Birthday to the Four Horsemen of the Stockalypse

On October 8, 2018, I warned of the four horsemen of the stockalypse.  These are each significant threats to the economy and the stock market. Just over one month since that post, all of these threats are more dangerous. Meanwhile the US stock market sails along, apparently unconcerned. 


Storm Looms. US investors remain unconcerned.

11/2/18

October 2018 Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

"Is this the beginning?"  This was the subject line of an email that I received from Goldman, Sachs & Co. on October 10, 2018.  No. It may be the end of the beginning. I responded to Goldman, "All asset markets have been going down for years except US stocks. 1:  The depression started more than a decade ago. 2: Four horsemen of the stockalypse."

US equities fall along with global risk assets

10/31/18

Bear raid - part 3

Chicken Little has begun two more bear market actions. A probing sale of US stocks at Dow 25,300, and a purchase of gold at $1,212/oz. This adds to the emerging market stocks bear raid begun last week. More details to come.


Three bear market raids in progress


10/25/18

Bear Market Raid - part 2

Chicken Little has begun a second bear market raid. This is similar to the investments made in the first Bear Market Raid. This time by shorting emerging market stocks, entry point on the EEM at $40.30. More details to come.


Small Bear Action under way