October 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Real US interest rates have risen from being below zero to about 2%. This is the start of a longer-term return to tighter financial conditions. In this regime, many common beliefs will change and risk assets will decrease in price. 

Regime change in the US interest rates

September 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The debt crises is getting closer. Interest rates are rising rapidly. The cause is simple - overspending. To paraphrase Winston Churchill, "never in the history of the US have so many spent so much of other people's money for breads and circuses." Current deficits are, by far, the largest non-crises deficits in the history of the US. 

August 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

WOLF, wolf, wolf, wolf, wolf!

I have been crying wolf prematurely for a decade. 

Aesop ends the fable of the boy who cried wolf with these lines: 

Q: I cried out, "Wolf!" Why didn't you come? 

A: Nobody believes a liar even when he is telling the truth! 

Protect your sheep

July 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

I have been a Chicken Little for more than a decade fearing payback for overspending and printing money. Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote, "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds." Judge for yourself whether my consistency is foolish or prescient by watching this CNBC video from 2013 (click here for video). 

Little or Big Mind?

June 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Is it time for Chicken Little to give up the bearish view and buy stocks? It certainly feels like time to buy stocks if one watches the stock market rally every day.  

Time to get Bullish?

May 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The party in the stock market continues. Interest rates have gone up significantly, but the stock market also continues to rally.  Does Chicken Little have tiny, poorly-functioning bird brain? 

Nominal interest rates are at multi-year highs

April 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at almost exactly at the same level as a year ago, and also the same level as two years ago. The stock market resilience has Chicken Little thinking. Who is wrong? Me or the stock market? 

Dow at the same level for 2 years

March 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Is there going to be a deflationary debt crisis in the US with high real interest rates? I believe so. The investments to own in a deflationary, and high real interest rate, environment are cash and short term t-bills. Crypto and gold can serve as insurance in situations where it becomes hard to obtain and use cash.

Crisis investments

February 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Rising interest rates will crush the economy and risky assets. This has been my belief for years, and now it is coming true. Look out below. 

Interest rates will crush speculation

Chicken Little, Why still bearish?

The Chicken Little remains 99% + 1% bearish. Why?  

Bear is just resting, hasn't gone away

January 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The bear market case is getting existential. How long will we have to wait for the bone-crushing financial depression? 

Only Samuel Beckett knows

December 2022, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

2022 was a terrible year for investors. I believe that 2023 will be worse. 

Danger Ahead!