Terry Burnham
Observations of a Biological Economist
4/14/21
March 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
3/4/21
February 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
2/20/21
Chicken Little's Current thinking
Price 2/20/21 | Long-term | Medium term | Position | Next Investment move | |
Stocks (Dow) | 31,500 | Negative | Neutral | Small short - probing action | Short more if bear market begins, buy among the ashes if collapse happens |
Bonds (30-year Treasury) | 2.13% | Neutral | Negative | Underweight | Reduce underweight when 30-year hits 2.81%, consider liquidation if inflation exceeds 6% |
Gold | $1,785 | Positive | Negative | Underweight (0%) | Buy if gold makes a new all-time high above $2,000 |
Crypto (BTC) | $56,500 | Positive | Positive | Overweight | Trimming overweight on a calendar basis, buy more on 50% decline |

2/18/21
Chicken Little makes bitcoin moves
2/10/21
Revenge of the Sheriff of Nottingham
The 'Sheriff of Nottingham trade' is to target stocks owned by retail investors. This is the opposite of the 'Reditt rebellion'.
Reddit rebellion - buy stock in companies heavily shorted by hedge funds.
The Revenge of the Sheriff of Nottingham - sell stock in companies heavily owned by Robinhood'ers.
2/8/21
January 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
1/4/21
December 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
12/19/20
Currency Paradigm Shift
Chicken Little has over 5% of the portfolio in crypto. Am I risking 5% of my families' cash in dangerous speculation? Or do I have 95% of my families' money in a fiat currency likely to be depreciated to zero.
I have moved toward thinking the US dollar is riskier than crypto. If I complete the change in thinking, I will move more aggressively into crypto. Here are some of key posts on the path from 0% to 5% crypto.
Post | Date | Bitcoin Price |
First Crypto Buy | June 2017 | $2,300 |
Second Crypto Buy | December 16, 2017 | $17,500 |
Buy Crypto for the Long Run | February 9, 2020 | $9,950 |
Crypto Lust | August 13, 2020 | $11,700 |
Thomas Kuhn & Currencies | November 20, 2020 | $18,621 |
11/20/20
Thomas Kuhn & Crypto
Crypto is the best store of value. Fiat currencies are silly Ponzi schemes. Gold is heavy, dirty, and there may be a lot more coming. Crypto pollutes through electricity, but is infinitely portable, and has fixed supply. Thomas Kuhn illuminates paradigm shifts. There is a currency paradigm shift coming.
Current Market Cap | New Supply possible | New Supply in last year | Portability | Environmental impact | |
Treasury Bonds | ~$25 Trillion | Infinite | $3 Trillion+ | high | lowest |
Gold | ~$12 Trillion | Large ($100+ Trillion undersea) | ~$200 Billion | some issues | highest (mines are dirty & dangerous) |
Bitcoin | ~$350 Billion | 0 | 0 | high | medium (electricity) |
11/16/20
Chicken Little Respects Dow 30,000
Chicken Little is no longer bearish on US stocks. On January 25, 2018, when the Dow was at 26,252, I wrote the reverse article, "Chicken Little is no longer bullish on US stocks." In recent days, the Dow has rallied to a new all-time high, and this new high has to be respected.
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Chicken Little is no longer bearish on US stocks |