Is the Market Scared of Big US Deficits?

In the last two weeks, every asset has gone down. For sure, risky assets including stocks have gone down broadly this month, but the 'safety assets' of gold, bitcoin, and long-treasuries have also declined. I have long predicted that the end game of our current government folly will happen when the market cuts the US off from easy money (for example, HUGE deficits & Bond yields collapse).  We will see if the end game is here. 

The End Game will be rising Real Interest Rates


The Rainy Day Fund is Empty

The US economy has boomed for 11 years. The gains from that boom have been squandered, and we are not prepared for hard times. 

The Rainy Day fund is empty


February 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Since 2015, Chicken Little was hiding in Treasury bonds fearing a Japanese/German style collapse in bond yields (see 'turning Japanese' for one of many articles).  Now that this nightmare of low US interest rates is a reality, what is next? First, the mother of all monetary bubbles, and then second, the imposition of discipline from the financial markets.

The bull market is built on e-printing and spending


January 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

If you need to hide 25% of your assets to avoid inflation or confiscation, do you have the tools? If not, a crypto beachhead might be a good idea.  Chicken Little has made three successful cryptocurrency raids (1, 2, 3). A raid is temporary by design. A beachhead, in contrast, is persistent and can be expanded

Chicken Little has established a crypto beachhead


Five Important Mistakes of College Students

By Professors Jay Phelan and Terry Burnham

Be a better student


December 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

December 2019 was a great month for investors ending an annus mirabilis - Latin for a miraculous, remarkable, and auspicious year. Every risky investment paid off in 2019, ranging from bitcoin, gold, treasury bonds to emerging market stocks. Paraphrasing War Games, the only way to lose, was not to play in 2019.

2019 Free Money for Investors


Donnie Brasco Investment Returns

Are you unhappy with your investment returns? 

The Dow sits at over 28,000, gold is up 20% this year, 30-year Treasury bonds have earned 15%, and bitcoin has doubled.  Are you getting your piece of easy money pie? If not, it is the fault of the Donnie Brasco investment world. 

It is a Donnie Brasco Investment World


November 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

November 2019 was a breakout month for US stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average set eight all-time record highs, and closed above 28,000 for the first time in history.  The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates and printing money at historic rates. So far, the Fed has succeeded in inflating asset prices. 

The Federal Reserve has resumed e-printing


October 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

October was another month of waiting. Lots of ups and down, but almost zero movement. The Fed has cut rates three times so far this year. six more and we will be at Depression level zero interest rates. 

Still Waiting


US Deficits can become HUGE


September 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

“Nothing happens. Nobody comes, nobody goes. It's awful.”  -Samuel Beckett. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 26,500-- the same level as in January 2018. Almost two years with ups and downs, but no overall movement.  Chicken Little continues to believe the boredom will be replaced with mayhem. 

Waiting for the Debt Crisis


August 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Low interest rates cause economic harm and are an indictor of a sick economy. Interest rates in the US continue to collapse toward those in Japan and Germany. Conventional wisdom states that low interest rates "support the economy." This is wrong and dangerous. 

US interest rates are turning Japanese.