Men Can be Evil: Economists are often confused

Men fill the world’s prisons, commit most murders, and have started all major wars. In another example of scientists rediscovering ancient truths, a new study of mine documents the costs men impose on (an experimental) society. In the study, status-seeking men are willing to impose enormous costs on others to move up in the hierarchy. 

Initial Bear Market Raid Complete

Chicken Little began a modest bear market raid by shorting US stocks in February. That short position is now closed. The Chicken Little Portfolio made 0.25% on this raid. (6.25% short positions and a ~4% decline in US stocks = 0.25%). While this is a tiny gain, making money on the first short position is great, and works to train the mind to look for more opportunities. The Dow Jones Industrials sits at 24,786 - roughly halfway between the January 26, 2018 high  and the lows of February. Chicken Little anticipates more declines.

Bear Market raid creates taste from more honey

March 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The US stock market has declined 10% since January 26, 2018. Chicken Little predicts further declines. 

A Long Way Down

Break the Buy the Dip Habit

'Buying the dip' - investing new money after stock market declines - has been profitable for almost a decade. However, Chicken Little believes that buying the current dip will be disastrous (see, Chicken Little sees death). Keeping our money safe, however, requires overcoming our own brains.

Don't Buy this Dip 

February 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little has begun a first, baby bear market action. Because a variety of markets were weak in February, the odds that January 26, 2018 was the top have increased. Accordingly, Chicken Little has begun a first probing bear market action. (Follow up: this bear market raid ended in April 2018.)

Chicken Little makes a first bear market move

January 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

In January 2018, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 1.66% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained an amazing 5.74%.

"This is the Top" - January 25, 2018 - Chicken Little 

Chicken Litttle is not bullish on US stocks

Chicken Little has been bullish on US stocks for a year and a half. As of January 25, 2018, Chicken Little is no longer bullish. 

Chicken Little is no longer bullish on US stocks.

Chicken Little exits Crypto currencies (again)

Chicken Little has exited cryptocurrencies after a second round of trading (see cyrpto post 2, crypto post 1). Winning at Vegas in a gambler's first visit is said to be a curse as it is hard not to return. For now, Chicken Little has no plans to re-enter for a third time. 

100% returns flood the brain with dopamine

A- for 2017 Chicken Little Portfolio performance (self-graded)

A-

I give the Chicken Little Portfolio a grade of A- for 2017. Wrong every day of the year on macro predictions, and still managed to beat out a decent return with disciplined, low-risk approach. Also, made a few bucks buying cryptocurrencies. 

December 2017, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

In December 2017, the Chicken Little Portfolio gained 1.20% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.06%.

2017 was the year where every investment made money. Stocks, bonds, gold, real estate, and cryptocurrencies.

2017, the year of free money

Chicken Little makes a *Newtonian mistake?

Chicken Little has bought more cryptocurrencies. In doing so, he may be making a Newtonian mistake with an asterisk. Sir Isaac Newton was the smartest man alive in his era. He invested in the what became known as the South Sea Bubble, made some money and exited. However, as the bubble soared, Newton re-invested and lost a substantial sum -- more than his original profit.  

Chicken Little Dives back into Cryptocurrencies

She who understands the fruit fly would do more for economics than Adam Smith

“He who understands baboon would do more towards metaphysics than Locke” – Charles Darwin, Notebooks

Inspired by a consilient Darwin, I have titled my new paper, "She who understands the fruit fly would do more for economics than Adam Smith."

I am continuing my work using experimental evolution to improve economics (previous post here). I label the effort to place economics on a natural science foundation as one of the greatest long-shots in the history of science. Read below for the introduction to the paper. Click here to read the full text. 

Slime mould in experimental evolution study on risk-taking