WOLF
"No one believes a liar even when they are telling the truth." -- My favorite line from the boy who cried wolf. The failed US government policies of spending too much and "printing" money must result in financial ruin. I remain 100% bearish.
3/6/25
February 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
The End of a Profligate Era
The raging bull market in US stocks will end, and so will the era of spending and profligacy. The coming era will reverse many important aspects of life. For some, extremely painful, and, for all, risky because of social upheaval.
 |
| From Flappers to Depression |
2/7/25
January 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Chicken Little still scared.
The source of Chicken Little fears is government malfeasance in the form of overspending and loose monetary policy. My prediction was, and remains, rising real interest rates lead to asset market declines. All parts of this thesis have come true except for US stocks. Interest rates around the world up, non-US stocks flat, Chinese housing collapse, but US stocks continue to go up.
.png) |
| US Stocks are the last risky asset standing |
1/8/25
December 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
The Sky is (really) going to fall.
It has been almost a decade since I earned the Chicken Little moniker (see post). In that decade, US stocks have produced one of the greatest bull markets in history. After a decade of being wrong about US stocks, I am more afraid of financial collapse than ever.
 |
| The Sky is (really) about to fall |
12/14/24
November 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Chicken Little still scared of US Debt
The central thesis of Chicken Little has been that massive government debt will cause real interest rates to rise and, consequently, asset prices to fall. I am approaching an entire decade of being wrong about the US stock market, which continues to rise.
 |
| Powerful Bull Market shrugs off Debt |
11/12/24
October 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Still out of sync with markets
Chicken Little continues to fear a debt crisis. Meanwhile financial markets of many types continue to soar.
 |
| Chicken Little fails while other get rich |
10/13/24
September 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Right but still Wrong
'No one believes a liar even when they are telling the truth.'
- The boy who cried wolf
Many of my macroeconomic fears are now widely recognized, but markets do not appear worried. I continue to believe that US government overspending and Federal Reserve failures will lead to economic disaster. I remain essentially alone in crying wolf.
 |
| Wolf! |
9/12/24
August 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Chicken Little still Scared
It has been almost 10 years since my friend Paul Solman of PBS named me the 'chicken little of finance.' A decade later, I continue to fear that government malfeasance, in the form of loose money and too much spending, will create financial havoc. So far, the stock market is unconcerned.
 |
| Chicken Little approaching 10th birthday |
8/3/24
July 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Can AI pay Government debts?
The US Government is overspending at an historic rate. Chicken Little believes the most likely end-game is for the bond market to choke off overspending by a rise in real interest rates. However, it is possible that AI, and technology generally, will make us so much richer that we can afford government spending and thereby avoid disaster.
 |
| Can AI feed the US Government? |
7/2/24
June 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Long-Term interest rates are rising
Chicken Little has been completely wrong about the US stock market for close to a decade. My central thesis has been, and remains, that real interest rates will rise, and asset prices will fall. While I have been completely wrong about stocks, I have been right about interest rates.
 |
| US Debt with (eventually) crush asset prices |
6/6/24
May 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Can AI save us from Government profligacy?
The bull case for the economy and asset markets is that technology, particularly Artificial Intelligence, will save the financial day. The US government is overspending at an historic rate and, consequently, the cumulative US debt is at historic highs - exceeding the Debt/GDP levels at the end of World War II. Who will win? So far, AI.
 |
| Robots to the Rescue? |
5/23/24
April 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
The Frog in the Pot?
The Chicken Little thesis remains unchanged for nearly a decade. That US Federal government, and non-US central banks, have taken actions that will cause a crisis. Overspending and e-printing money lead to short term (or medium term) positives with enormous risk. Real interest rates will, in this view, continue to rise until the crisis strikes.
| Rising real interest rates will kill the economy |