1/15/18

Chicken Little exits Crypto currencies (again)

Chicken Little has exited cryptocurrencies after a second round of trading (see cyrpto post 2, crypto post 1). Winning at Vegas in a gambler's first visit is said to be a curse as it is hard not to return. For now, Chicken Little has no plans to re-enter for a third time. 

100% returns flood the brain with dopamine


1/5/18

A- for 2017 Chicken Little Portfolio performance (self-graded)

A-

I give the Chicken Little Portfolio a grade of A- for 2017. Wrong every day of the year on macro predictions, and still managed to beat out a decent return with disciplined, low-risk approach. Also, made a few bucks buying cryptocurrencies. 



1/1/18

December 2017, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

In December 2017, the Chicken Little Portfolio gained 1.20% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.06%.

2017 was the year where every investment made money. Stocks, bonds, gold, real estate, and cryptocurrencies.


2017, the year of free money


12/16/17

Chicken Little makes a *Newtonian mistake?

Chicken Little has bought more cryptocurrencies. In doing so, he may be making a Newtonian mistake with an asterisk. Sir Isaac Newton was the smartest man alive in his era. He invested in the what became known as the South Sea Bubble, made some money and exited. However, as the bubble soared, Newton re-invested and lost a substantial sum -- more than his original profit.  


Chicken Little Dives back into Cryptocurrencies


12/4/17

She who understands the fruit fly would do more for economics than Adam Smith

“He who understands baboon would do more towards metaphysics than Locke” – Charles Darwin, Notebooks

Inspired by a consilient Darwin, I have titled my new paper, "She who understands the fruit fly would do more for economics than Adam Smith."

I am continuing my work using experimental evolution to improve economics (previous post here). I label the effort to place economics on a natural science foundation as one of the greatest long-shots in the history of science. Read below for the introduction to the paper. Click here to read the full text

Slime mould in experimental evolution study on risk-taking

12/1/17

November 2017, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

In November 2017, the Chicken Little Portfolio gained 0.17% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average roared 4.12%.

Investing requires emotional intelligence. Particularly in the form of patience. Chicken Little is very negative on risk assets, but has learned the importance of momentum.


Chicken Little is waiting to commence bear market operations

11/17/17

Preparing for Bear Market Operations

The current bull market began in March 2009. In this post, Chicken Little is preparing for his first Bear Market Operation in many years. This post is similar to the successful "Criteria for Bullishness" article for 18 months ago.

The premise of Bear Market Operations is that there will be a massive, historic drop in price for all risk assets - stocks, real estate, and (almost) all bonds. Most people will be financially ruined by this bear market. 


A  Plan for Waking the Sleeping Bear

11/5/17

October 2017, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

In October 2017, the Chicken Little Portfolio gained 0.27% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 4.39%.

Chicken Little has cleared the figurative decks by selling all risk assets in the portfolio. These investments in cryptocurrencies and equities were small, but significant from a psychological perspective. Clearing the deck of risk assets prepares the portfolio for a harsher financial environment.


Lord Nelson was killed here, Chicken Little now lives here

10/11/17

September 2017, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

In September 2017, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 1.62% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.14%.

Chicken Little is focused on one economic issue. Can the US economy, and stock market, handle a sustained rise in interest rates, albeit from historically low levels? At the end of last year, I predicted that the US Federal Reserve would keep tightening monetary policy until the stock market stopped climbing. I label this idea as The Yellen Collar

Will the economy be able to handle tighter money?

9/17/17

August 2017, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

In August 2017, the Chicken Little Portfolio gained 1.74% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.61%. The annus mirabilis continues for investors as all assets go up in price, almost every day.

2017, Annus mirabilis for investors

9/1/17

Chicken Little Feels the pain of "opportunity loss"

Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies have doubled -- 100% return - since Chicken Little made his purchase in May. See May post here. How does Chicken Little feel about making a 100% return in 3 months? 

Terrible. 

"Opportunity Cost" is the economic term for missed opportunity. I label the pain of owning too little of a winning investment as "Opportunity Loss."  Investing is a tough game. Losing money hurts. Making money also hurts when others are making more. 

Chicken Little feels the pain of not owning enough crytpo

8/23/17

July 2017, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

In July 2017, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.10% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.77%.

The best investment of 2017 has been cryptocurrencies. There are close to 1,000 different types of 'coin.' The most famous being Bitcoin and Ethereum. Chicken Little made a tiny investment in cryptocurrencies in May 2017.

Are your ready (player one) for cryptocurrencies?