Still out of sync with markets
Terry Burnham
Observations of a Biological Economist
10/13/24
September 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Right but still Wrong
'No one believes a liar even when they are telling the truth.'
- The boy who cried wolf
Many of my macroeconomic fears are now widely recognized, but markets do not appear worried. I continue to believe that US government overspending and Federal Reserve failures will lead to economic disaster. I remain essentially alone in crying wolf.
9/12/24
August 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Chicken Little still Scared
It has been almost 10 years since my friend Paul Solman of PBS named me the 'chicken little of finance.' A decade later, I continue to fear that government malfeasance, in the form of loose money and too much spending, will create financial havoc. So far, the stock market is unconcerned.
8/3/24
July 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Can AI pay Government debts?
The US Government is overspending at an historic rate. Chicken Little believes the most likely end-game is for the bond market to choke off overspending by a rise in real interest rates. However, it is possible that AI, and technology generally, will make us so much richer that we can afford government spending and thereby avoid disaster.
7/2/24
June 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Long-Term interest rates are rising
Chicken Little has been completely wrong about the US stock market for close to a decade. My central thesis has been, and remains, that real interest rates will rise, and asset prices will fall. While I have been completely wrong about stocks, I have been right about interest rates.
6/6/24
May 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Can AI save us from Government profligacy?
The bull case for the economy and asset markets is that technology, particularly Artificial Intelligence, will save the financial day. The US government is overspending at an historic rate and, consequently, the cumulative US debt is at historic highs - exceeding the Debt/GDP levels at the end of World War II. Who will win? So far, AI.
5/23/24
April 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
The Frog in the Pot?
The Chicken Little thesis remains unchanged for nearly a decade. That US Federal government, and non-US central banks, have taken actions that will cause a crisis. Overspending and e-printing money lead to short term (or medium term) positives with enormous risk. Real interest rates will, in this view, continue to rise until the crisis strikes.
Rising real interest rates will kill the economy |
4/7/24
March 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Missing out on free money?
The Bull Market continued through the end of March 2024. Chicken Little remains scared of financial doom and continues to miss out on huge gains in the stock market. The pain trade remains painful.
Bear (and chickens) are hungry |
2/18/24
January 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
AI boom or speculative mania?
The stock market goes up every day; Nvidia, Google, Meta, and the rest of the magnificent seven except struggling Tesla. Meanwhile, financial excesses pile up - historic levels of government deficit and debts. Are financial markets anticipating technological improvements or going up because of simple speculation?
Technological boom or speculative mania? |
1/13/24
December 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Chicken Little a failure?
A senior Goldman, Sachs & Co. executive recently said, "I'd be retired if it weren't for Terry Burnham." He is right in that I have been resolutely bearish for more than a decade while risk assets have soared. The best approach would have been to buy crypto, the second best, buy any risky asset, and, pulling up the rear, Chicken Little's portfolio - my real portfolio.
Chicken Little has been wrong for a decade |
12/17/23
November 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Time to quit being bearish?
All major asset classes have rallied like crazy since late October. Many individual stocks and some stock indices have hit all-time, history-of-the-world highs. Bears are starving and dying. Is it time for Chicken Little to turn bullish?
Risk Assets are Soaring, Bears are Starving |