March 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The Bull Market rolls forward crushing naysayers. US stocks soared in March of 2021, continuing a winning streak that dates back to March 23, 2020, March 9, 2009, and all the way back to 1800. Stocks for short run and stocks for the long run has been the way to make cash in America. 

It's a Bull Market

February 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Question: What do you call a scared chicken? Answer: A chicken. The risks in financial markets seem even larger as the great white shark of higher interest rates appears (see last month's prediction). 

All debt crises end with higher interest rates 

Chicken Little's Current thinking

	Price 2/20/21	Long-term	Medium term	Position	Next Investment move
Stocks (Dow)	31,500	Negative	Neutral	Small short - probing action	Short more if bear market begins, buy among the ashes if collapse happens
Bonds (30-year Treasury)	2.13%	Neutral	Negative	Underweight	Reduce underweight when 30-year hits 2.81%, consider liquidation if inflation exceeds 6%
Gold	$1,785	Positive	Negative	Underweight (0%)	Buy if gold makes a new all-time high above $2,000
Crypto (BTC)	$56,500	Positive	Positive	Overweight	Trimming overweight on a calendar basis, buy more on 50% decline

Chicken Little makes bitcoin moves

Six months ago, I wrote, "I cannot believe the low price at a mere $11,700 per bitcoin." As I write this, bitcoin price is over $50,000, up over 50% so far in February (18 days) . Chicken Little has sold about 50% of the crypto position. I have also changed the composition of the crypto position toward "alt coins." 

The barrier to investing success is internal 

Revenge of the Sheriff of Nottingham

The 'Sheriff of Nottingham trade' is to target stocks owned by retail investors. This is the opposite of the 'Reditt rebellion'.

Reddit rebellion - buy stock in companies heavily shorted by hedge funds. 

The Revenge of the Sheriff of Nottingham - sell stock in companies heavily owned by Robinhood'ers. 

The Sheriff may get revenge

January 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The lurking great white shark for financial markets is rising interest rates. Chicken Little believes that the bond market will (eventually) raise the cost for borrowing, and thus end the rally in stocks and other risky assets. Interest rates are still low, but have been rising for some months. 

Higher interest rates may be coming

December 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little continues to cower in fear of a global economic Depression. However, there has been one big change. Previously, Chicken Little was sure that the depression would be deflationary. Now, the chances of a Fed-induced inflationary Depression seem higher. 

Central Bank Printing has ruined Venezuela

Currency Paradigm Shift

Chicken Little has over 5% of the portfolio in crypto. Am I risking 5% of my families' cash in dangerous speculation?  Or do I have 95% of my families' money in a fiat currency likely to be depreciated to zero. 

I have moved toward thinking the US dollar is riskier than crypto. If I complete the change in thinking, I will move more aggressively into crypto. Here are some of key posts on the path from 0% to 5% crypto. 

Post	Date	Bitcoin Price
First Crypto Buy	June 2017	$2,300
Second Crypto Buy	December 16, 2017	$17,500
Buy Crypto for the Long Run	February 9, 2020	$9,950
Crypto Lust	August 13, 2020	$11,700
Thomas Kuhn & Currencies	November 20, 2020	$18,621

November 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

November 2020 was an incredible month for financial risk-taking. Asset markets soared with global stocks having their best month since the 1930s. 

Thomas Kuhn & Crypto

Crypto is the best store of value. Fiat currencies are silly Ponzi schemes. Gold is heavy, dirty, and there may be a lot more coming. Crypto pollutes through electricity, but is infinitely portable, and has fixed supply. Thomas Kuhn illuminates paradigm shifts. There is a currency paradigm shift coming. 

	Current Market Cap	New Supply possible	New Supply in last year	Portability	Environmental impact
Treasury Bonds	~$25 Trillion	Infinite	$3 Trillion+	high	lowest
Gold	~$12 Trillion	Large ($100+ Trillion undersea)	~$200 Billion	some issues	highest (mines are dirty & dangerous)
Bitcoin	~$350 Billion	0	0	high	medium (electricity)

Chicken Little Respects Dow 30,000

Chicken Little is no longer bearish on US stocks. On January 25, 2018, when the Dow was at 26,252, I wrote the reverse article, "Chicken Little is no longer bullish on US stocks." In recent days, the Dow has rallied to a new all-time high, and this new high has to be respected. 

Chicken Little is no longer bearish on US stocks

October 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

"Buy as much bitcoin as you can afford to lose." - Recently, I shared my crypto lust with a friend in this manner.  Upon reflection, however, perhaps it is time to view the US Dollar as riskier than Bitcoin. The Fed is printing dollars like crazy. While there are literally trillions more dollars today than a year ago, there will only ever by 21 million bitcoins. 

Time to Change the Currency Guards?