September 2018 Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Recently, the Dow hit an all-time high of 26,951. At the same time, oil, copper, gold, and emerging market stocks have been in a decade-long stealth deflationary depression. The question has been how long can the Dow resist being pulled down? The answer is that the stockalypse is imminent. 

US equities will fall

Four Horsemen of the Stockalypse

On October 3, 2018, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an all-time, history of the world, high of 26,951.81. There are four, existential threats to US stocks. Let us call them the four horsemen of the stockalypse.  

Four existential threats to the stock market

Chicken Little Fails for the last time

Dow hits record, surpassing January High 

Chicken Little will never leave his wingman again

Financial Knowledge Quiz

Here is a quiz of your financial knowledge. The task is to recall the peak price (not including dividends) and date of some of the most important financial assets and indices. 

	today 9/12/18	all time high	date of all -time high
US Stocks - Dow Jones Industrials	25,999
Non-US Stocks (EFA)	$66.18
Emerging Market Stocks (EEM)	$41.44
US Long-Term Treasuries (TLT)	$118.94
Gold (per oz.)	$1,207
Bitcoin	$6,297
Oil (WTI)	$69.25

Answer before looking below.

August 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

At 25,965, the Dow is approaching its all-time high of 26,616. It will be historic if the Dow hits a new all-time high, and equally historic if the Dow fails to hit new high. 

The US stock market is about to make history 

July 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

In July 2018, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.65% while the Dow soared 4.80%. The U.S. stock market remains stuck in a range - The Dow has not exceeded the January high of 26,616 nor gone below the February low of 23,533. 

Bear market ahead? 

June 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

In June 2018, the Chicken Little Portfolio earned 0.73% while the Dow lost 0.44%. The global  market situation remains the same -- investors have made zero money this year, but the collapse has not yet arrived. 

The Bear is Hungry -- Food coming soon

How to Win a Bar Fight with the Stock Market

There are a surprising number of websites that will teach you how to win a bar fight. This post translates that 'wisdom' into dealing with the your investments in the stock market with links to previous Chicken Little posts about the stock market. 

May 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

"It's not the money I will miss, it is the things" 

-- Private Judy Benjamin 

The 'Wealth Effect' is the money people spend when they become wealthier, often because of rising stock & housing prices. Will people continue to spend if assets do not rally in 2018? 

2018 may not have a positive wealth effect

April 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The coming great financial storm may be upon us. In the past, I have focused on the probability and characteristics of the coming Financial Depression (e.g., "there will be a massive, historic drop in price for all risk assets"). In this post, I focus on the process of the decline, and the barrier you will face in saving yourself and your family. 

The Great Financial Storm Looms

Men Can be Evil: Economists are often confused

Men fill the world’s prisons, commit most murders, and have started all major wars. In another example of scientists rediscovering ancient truths, a new study of mine documents the costs men impose on (an experimental) society. In the study, status-seeking men are willing to impose enormous costs on others to move up in the hierarchy. 

Initial Bear Market Raid Complete

Chicken Little began a modest bear market raid by shorting US stocks in February. That short position is now closed. The Chicken Little Portfolio made 0.25% on this raid. (6.25% short positions and a ~4% decline in US stocks = 0.25%). While this is a tiny gain, making money on the first short position is great, and works to train the mind to look for more opportunities. The Dow Jones Industrials sits at 24,786 - roughly halfway between the January 26, 2018 high  and the lows of February. Chicken Little anticipates more declines.

Bear Market raid creates taste from more honey