Happy Birthday Dow 5,000 Prediction

© Terry Burnham

On July 11, 2013, on this page, I predicted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would hit 5,000 before it hit 20,000. Here is some of what I wrote a year ago:
The Fed has been keeping interest rates at rock bottom lows to supposedly stimulate the economy… The idea that the Fed can save the economy is simply ridiculous. … What about fiscal policy? Can we deficit spend our way to prosperity? This is also ridiculous. Our problem is that we have overspent. If you had a problem of drinking 50 cups of coffee a day, would the solution be to drink 80 cups a day for a while? … 
Stocks will decline … I’m not predicting what will happen today, or in the next week or month. I don’t pretend to know the timing. I only think that I see the inevitable.
One year later, we revisit the macroeconomic policies and the impact on jobs and profits, and check in on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. In addition, we develop a scorecard to revisit periodically as the government attempts to end the unusual macroeconomic policy environment.


The 5 Critical Mistakes College Students Make

What are these students doing right?

The 5 Critical Mistakes College Students Make

Two students email a professor asking for help getting a job. The professor says yes to a student with bad grades, and no to the student with straight A's. Why?
There are secret rules to academic life. Students who know the rules win, others lose. These rules are invisible to most students, and there is no college course that explains the hidden paths to success.


Dow 5000 revisited

 click to read article on PBS

Dow 5000 update

On July 11, 2013, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 15, 460, I predicted that the Dow would hit 5.000 before it hit 20,000. On May 13, the Dow closed at all-time high of 16, 715 and the index has risen by 5.9 percent since I made my gloomy prediction. Is it time for me to surrender and join the bullsih herd?


In this piece, I revisit the Dow 5,000 prediction and the economics of it, and I identify three macroeconomic hurdles to reaching Dow 20,000. The first of these hurdles is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s plan to end its loose money policy of quantitative easing by October of 2014.


Big Banks Will Fail

Click to view CNBC segment


Dow 5000

  click to visit CNBC article


The Stockholm Syndrome and Printing Money

 Click to watch CNBC video