12/1/16

Chicken Little Portfolio Performance November 2016

In November 2016, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 4.67% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.94%. The US bond market is in the midst of an enormous decline.

President Elect Trump had a HUGE impact on markets

11/29/16

Chicken Little First dates: Shorting Non-US stocks.

On August 11, 2016, Chicken Little broke up with Treasury bonds, and began looking for love elsewhere. A prior post describes buying US stocks - a tough position for a doom-and-gloomer. 

Consistent with his "Investment Rules," this post describes a psychologically easier trade for Chicken Little of shorting Non-US stocks. 


Chicken Little is betting against Stocks Outside the US 


11/21/16

Chicken Little First Dates, Buying US stocks.


On August 11, 2016, Chicken Little broke up with Treasury bonds, and began looking for love elsewhere. Consistent with Chicken Little "Investment Rules," this post describes Chicken little's first date with buying US Stocks. 

Given that Chicken Little fears a deflationary depression, buying US stocks has been emotionally challenging. some details follow. 


Chicken Little has bought US stocks

11/9/16

President Trump and Chicken Little

What is the impact of President Trump on Chicken Little's view of the financial world? 


Just five months ago, I wrote that "Brexit changes nothing for Chicken Little". 

In sharp contrast, the election of Donald Trump is a big change for Chicken Little. However, the central economic issue in the world remains unchanged. 

11/4/16

Chicken Little Portfolio Performance October 2016


In October 2016, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 2.37% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.78%.

10/30/16

Central Banks' Battle of the Bulge

On January 10, 2016, Chicken Little warned of a deflationary depression. Within a few weeks of Chicken Little's deflationary warning, exactly the opposite happened -- prices of everything including oil, gold, and stocks and bonds began rising. 

Just today (Oct 30, 2016), the Wall Street Journal printed a front page headline "Inflation, Long Quiescent, Begins to Stir," writing "markets and central bankers alike will be relieved that the world is no longer skirting a deflationary abyss."

Did Chicken Little make the mistake of crying deflation just at the beginning of an inflation? 

The snake you can see, sometimes does bite.

10/16/16

Chicken Little Investing Rules - the short version

On August 11, 2016, Chicken Little changed his relationship status. After a nearly decade-long love affair with US Treasury bonds, Chicken Little packed his bags and moved to a small apartment near the beach with a bean bag chair and one cracked plastic cup.

Unfamiliar with the new financial dating scene, Chicken Little has been nervous. "It is too soon." "Do I swipe right or left on Tinder?" Before going on a few financial dates, Chicken Little knew that he had to set some rules. 


Chicken Little Looks for Investment Love

10/3/16

Chicken Little Portfolio Performance September 2016

In September 2016, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.63% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.44%.

9/30/16

Angela Merkel will secretly print Euros to save Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank on the Brink of Bankruptcy?

Deutsche Bank needs help

What are the odds that Deutsche Bank will fail and cause a 2008-like collapse? Chicken Little's answer is the the odds are less than zero. This may seem impossible as probabilities are supposed to range from 0% to 100%.

9/19/16

Regime Shift in the Bond Market - Japanese Bond Market

Chicken Little is scared of his own shadow. In this post, however, Chicken Little makes the reckless prediction that the bull market in Japanese bonds is over. 

Betting against the Japanese bond market is known as the 'widowmaker' trade because it has bankrupted so many famous investors. Has Chicken Little found a bit of courage or gone insane?


Chicken Little takes a path that has destroyed many others 

9/1/16

Chicken Little Portfolio Performance August 2016

In August 2016, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.65% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.25%.

8/31/16

Chicken Little an Investment Crank?

A brief update on the success (failure) of my blog. I began the blog a couple years ago, and I love writing the articles. I love writing them so much that I reward myself after finishing an unpleasant task by allowing myself time to write a post. 

Readership of the blog has increased from nothing to modestly more than nothing. However, I just discovered that some of this increase may be for the wrong reasons.

Is Chicken Little a Crank?