1/17/17

Chicken Little Portfolio Performance December 20016

In December 2016, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.08% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.42%.

Chicken Little starts 2017 scared and hiding in Treasury Bonds

12/13/16

The Greenspan Put becomes the Yellen Collar

Wall Street expects the Fed to raise interest rates by a quarter point tomorrow, December 14, 2016. But there is a potential surprise: The world may learn that the Fed wants to raise rates aggressively in 2017 and 2018. This new, more “hawkish” monetary policy may become known as the “Yellen Collar.”




12/8/16

Dow 20,000, and my list of excuses

In 2013, I wrote, " we will see Dow 5,000 before we see Dow 20,000" To make matters worse, I went on CNBC to argue that printing money takes from savers to give to borrowers like the US Government. While creating winners and losers, loose money, I argued, makes the overall pie smaller. 

Today, I am preparing to eat crow. The Dow is less than 2% from 20,000. It is almost mathematically impossible for my prediction to come true. I am preparing my list of excuses, and will publish them at Dow 20000. 


12/7/16

15 Ways Chicken Little Made Money in the Trump Rally

US Stocks have gained almost 10% since Donald Trump was elected. As detailed in previous posts, Chicken owns only a tiny amount of US stocks, which means that he makes almost no money directly from the stock market rally.

So is Chicken Little missing out on the rally? No. At the bottom of this post, there is a list of 15 ways that Chicken Little has made money because of the stock market rally. This article is the reverse of one from January of 2016: 15 Ways Chicken Little Lost Money in the Stock Market Decline

Chicken Little is (indirectly) riding the Wall Street Bull

12/4/16

Economics and Evolutionary Mismatch


Economics is lost. Here is recent academic article of mine that argues for a biological road to a better economics. Economics is lost, in part, by a failure to understand the impact of ancestral urges on behavior in industrialized settings, "Bread, crack cocaine, meat, cell phones, vaccines, cyanide, sleep, and birth control pills are all treated identically by standard economic theory." 


Human nature was shaped in ancestral environments





12/1/16

Chicken Little Portfolio Performance November 2016

In November 2016, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 4.67% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.94%. The US bond market is in the midst of an enormous decline.

President Elect Trump had a HUGE impact on markets

11/29/16

Chicken Little First dates: Shorting Non-US stocks.

On August 11, 2016, Chicken Little broke up with Treasury bonds, and began looking for love elsewhere. A prior post describes buying US stocks - a tough position for a doom-and-gloomer. 

Consistent with his "Investment Rules," this post describes a psychologically easier trade for Chicken Little of shorting Non-US stocks. 


Chicken Little is betting against Stocks Outside the US 


11/21/16

Chicken Little First Dates, Buying US stocks.


On August 11, 2016, Chicken Little broke up with Treasury bonds, and began looking for love elsewhere. Consistent with Chicken Little "Investment Rules," this post describes Chicken little's first date with buying US Stocks. 

Given that Chicken Little fears a deflationary depression, buying US stocks has been emotionally challenging. some details follow. 


Chicken Little has bought US stocks

11/9/16

President Trump and Chicken Little

What is the impact of President Trump on Chicken Little's view of the financial world? 


Just five months ago, I wrote that "Brexit changes nothing for Chicken Little". 

In sharp contrast, the election of Donald Trump is a big change for Chicken Little. However, the central economic issue in the world remains unchanged. 

11/4/16

Chicken Little Portfolio Performance October 2016


In October 2016, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 2.37% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.78%.

10/30/16

Central Banks' Battle of the Bulge

On January 10, 2016, Chicken Little warned of a deflationary depression. Within a few weeks of Chicken Little's deflationary warning, exactly the opposite happened -- prices of everything including oil, gold, and stocks and bonds began rising. 

Just today (Oct 30, 2016), the Wall Street Journal printed a front page headline "Inflation, Long Quiescent, Begins to Stir," writing "markets and central bankers alike will be relieved that the world is no longer skirting a deflationary abyss."

Did Chicken Little make the mistake of crying deflation just at the beginning of an inflation? 

The snake you can see, sometimes does bite.

10/16/16

Chicken Little Investing Rules - the short version

On August 11, 2016, Chicken Little changed his relationship status. After a nearly decade-long love affair with US Treasury bonds, Chicken Little packed his bags and moved to a small apartment near the beach with a bean bag chair and one cracked plastic cup.

Unfamiliar with the new financial dating scene, Chicken Little has been nervous. "It is too soon." "Do I swipe right or left on Tinder?" Before going on a few financial dates, Chicken Little knew that he had to set some rules. 


Chicken Little Looks for Investment Love