11/20/20

Thomas Kuhn & Crypto

Crypto is the best store of value. Fiat currencies are silly Ponzi schemes. Gold is heavy, dirty, and there may be a lot more coming. Crypto pollutes through electricity, but is infinitely portable, and has fixed supply. Thomas Kuhn illuminates paradigm shifts. There is a currency paradigm shift coming. 

Current Market CapNew Supply possibleNew Supply in last yearPortabilityEnvironmental impact
Treasury Bonds~$25 TrillionInfinite$3 Trillion+highlowest
Gold~$12 TrillionLarge ($100+ Trillion undersea)~$200 Billionsome issueshighest (mines are dirty & dangerous)
Bitcoin~$350 Billion00highmedium (electricity)

11/16/20

Chicken Little Respects Dow 30,000

Chicken Little is no longer bearish on US stocks. On January 25, 2018, when the Dow was at 26,252, I wrote the reverse article, "Chicken Little is no longer bullish on US stocks." In recent days, the Dow has rallied to a new all-time high, and this new high has to be respected. 

Chicken Little is no longer bearish on US stocks


11/1/20

October 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance


"Buy as much bitcoin as you can afford to lose." - Recently, I shared my crypto lust with a friend in this manner.  Upon reflection, however, perhaps it is time to view the US Dollar as riskier than Bitcoin. The Fed is printing dollars like crazy. While there are literally trillions more dollars today than a year ago, there will only ever by 21 million bitcoins. 




Time to Change the Currency Guards?

10/18/20

September 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance


There is one central economic question today. Can a country become rich by government deficit spending financed by the Central Bank 'printing' money. The current name for this idea is MMT - which stands for Modern Monetary Theory (click here for my review of MMT). 

The US Federal Government Spends, The Fed Prints. 


10/2/20

Modern Monetary Theory: Print and Spend to Prosperity?

Modern Monetary Theory  (MMT) argues that a country can become rich by government deficit spending and e-printing of money. In fact, countries all over the world have implemented MMT. The US government, for example, is running the largest deficit in history, and the Federal Reserve has paid for the deficit by creating money.  Click here for an academic review I wrote on MMT. Be forewarned that while MMT seems silly, mainstream economics may be sillier. 

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Stone Money on the Island of Yap

9/6/20

August 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

US stock market has roared back from the March 23rd low. In round numbers, the Dow dropped from 30K to 18K and has returned to 28K. Chicken Little continues to believe the worst lies ahead for the economy and the stock market. 

Bear Market Floats in Central Bank Liquidity

8/13/20

Chicken Little is a Crypto Sinner

Chicken Little has been violating the 10th Commandment: Thou Shall not Covet. In particular, there is one bitcoin for every 400 people on earth. Chicken Little has bitcoin lust in his little chicken heart. 

hello
Chicken Little has bitcoin moves


8/3/20

July 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Tom Segura, the Netflix comedian, says he has a new technique for arguing. He immediately switches to the other person's position. Such mental flexibility is extremely hard when it comes to investing. Six months ago, I changed from predicting a deflationary depression to predicting a depression that will probably be deflationary, but that might be inflationary. I continue to try to open my mind to the possibility of inflation by holding some gold and crypto. 


It's The Food Cup: German Vs. American Cuisine - Food Republic
1930's style US Deflation or German hyperinflation? 

7/7/20

June 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

There is one central question in finance now. Can a country become rich by deficit spending and e-printing. The US government is running the largest deficit in history, and the Fed has monetized more than 100% of the additional debt. The government spends and the Fed prints. So far, the stock market has loved this combination. Chicken Little continues to believe debt and deficit lead to Depression.  


The US Government is hurting the economy 

6/26/20

Bear Bounce ending?

Chicken Little has a small short position on US stocks, betting that the stock market will go below the March 23, 2020 low of Dow 18,000. 

This is going to hurt

6/16/20

Economics, Biology, and The Search for Happiness

Economics and Happiness, Click here or image for academic article

6/1/20

May 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

On March 23, 2015 the Dow was just over 18,000. Five years later the Dow was almost exactly unchanged at 18,591. Stock market investors spent five years without making any money while bonds, gold, real estate, and crypto soared. Stocks were the worst investment. Amidst pandemic, people sold huge amounts of stock in March 2020. Then, the Dow rallied almost 40% in 9 weeks. Pain! Perhaps worse than the losses, is the fact that stock market may be teaching us the wrong lesson.  

Time to leave your equity wingman?