Rising interest rates will crush the economy and risky assets. This has been my belief for years, and now it is coming true. Look out below.
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| Interest rates will crush speculation |
2/14/23
Chicken Little, Why still bearish?
The Chicken Little remains 99% + 1% bearish. Why?
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| Bear is just resting, hasn't gone away |
2/6/23
January 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
The bear market case is getting existential. How long will we have to wait for the bone-crushing financial depression?
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| Only Samuel Beckett knows |
1/15/23
December 2022, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
2022 was a terrible year for investors. I believe that 2023 will be worse.
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| Danger Ahead! |
12/5/22
November 2022, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Q: What is worse than the Fed raising rates? A: the Fed loosing control of rates. Financial Depression looms and the Government cannot prevent disaster. Furthermore, financial pain will fuel public anger in unpredictable and dangerous ways
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| Social unrest will increase |
11/24/22
October 2022, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Stocks are rallying, bonds are rallying, gold is rallying, is the storm over? No. Not surprisingly, Chicken Little sees nothing but storm clouds ahead.
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| Chicken Little sees only the clouds |
10/27/22
Chicken Little Buys Bonds
Chicken Little has purchased some US Treasury notes maturing in 3-8 years.
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| Buy Bonds |
10/8/22
September 2022, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
The Sky is Falling. All assets have lost considerable value so far in 2022. Chicken Little predicts more extreme losses. What is next after the plunge? The Fed will try cutting rates and restarting the printing presses. However, loose money leads to financial disaster. The Fed will end up even more disgraced than they are now.
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| More Fed printing & problems ahead |
9/1/22
August 2022, Chicken Litte Portfolio Performance
Chicken Little is focused on interest rates. Financial headlines highlight the recent rapid increase in rates. However, inflation-adjusted, real rates, remain firmly negative. That means real rates have to go higher, much higher. Higher real interest rates ahead mean almost all asset prices have further to fall (you ain't seen nothing yet).
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| Fed Chair Powell: Rates are going higher |
8/23/22
Chicken Little gone insane?
Chicken Little has gone insane? I have shorted stocks again today.
Here are some recent trades, sell stocks at Dow 31,000, buy stocks at 33,500, sell stocks at 33,000. So losing money at every turn, selling low and buying high.
Today, I sold stocks short again. I continue to believe that the end is coming soon (financially).
8/12/22
July 2022, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
The Fed is a hero again? By raising real rates to negative 6% and reducing the balance sheet by 1% has the Fed cured decades of bad decisions? A new bull market is born and new highs are coming soon? Anything is possible, but (unsurprisingly) Chicken Little sees new lows before new highs.
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| Chicken Little see financial storms ahead |
7/4/22
June 2022, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Stocks, bonds, gold, and crypto all fell in the first half of 2022. Is it time to buy? No, for two reasons. First, real interest rates remain negative. Second, and relatedly, the Fed has not begun to sell bonds. The Fed is scheduled to sell about $1 Trillion a year until they blink after they have further ruined the economy. I continue to suggest people sell some portion of their risky assets (see post: sell now).
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| The Fed has e-printed $9 trillion. |