Global Stock Markets are Next to Fall

Stocks: The Last to Fall

The Chicken Little "sky is falling" thesis has three parts. Government fiscal and monetary policy are disastrous. Consequently, real interest rates will rise leading to a decline of asset prices including stocks. All that remains to occur is the decline in stock markets.

April 2026, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

 Crushed by Debt

Global stock markets continue to go up almost every day. In the face of this relentless bull market, Chicken Little still believes the financial sky will fall. Real interest rates will continue to rise and (eventually) cause the decline of stocks and other risky assets.

March 2026, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

War without preparation

President Trump is proposing a 50% increase in military spending for the coming year. If this budget were passed, it would only partially restore a severe decline in military spending. A 200% increase to $3 trillion would get the US back to where we were in 1962. The current focus is on the middle east, but China is our most potent adversary. 

February 2026, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Winter is coming

In 2019, I observed that, like the grasshopper, the US was running a huge government deficit during the salad days of low interest rates, low military spending, and no recession. We spent when we should have saved. Today, interest rates have risen, military costs are increasing, and we have negative savings for the next recession. 

January 2026, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

 Bull Market in jeopardy?

Global stock markets remain the last asset class standing. US Treasury bonds have lost half their value. Bitcoin has suffered a 40% decline, the US housing market is weak, and silver lost 40% in 2 trading days. Can stock markets around the world continue to rally? 

December 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

 Bull Market remains strong

In 2025, the bull market in global equities remained powerful, while Chicken Little occasionally left his hiding spot to try to short stocks. Every short effort ending in losses, and 2025 continued the losing approach of Chicken Little. Global interest rates, however, continued to rise, giving me some reason to fear that the sky might still fall.  

2025: Bull Market beats up Chicken Little

November 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Equities: the last market standing.

Global stock markets are among the last major asset classes to prosper. Bond markets globally have been destroyed, Oil is under $60/barrel even with a weak dollar, Bitcoin has lost 30% of its value, and US residential real estate has declined in price over the last year. 

Stocks strong amid other market declines

October 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

AI to pay off the debt?

Can AI, and technology more broadly, make us so rich that we can pay off our massive debts without collapse? US debts and deficits are at record levels. However, if productivity accelerates, we can grow out way out of the problem. There are many anecdotal signs of efficiency gains from AI, but no sign of a productivity boom yet in statistics.

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Robots to the Fiscal Rescue? 

September 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little Stasis

I am going to continue this blog until the end of the year and then re-evaluate. September 2025 was a month like almost every other one over the past 10 years. Stocks and other risky assets went up in price while scared Chicken Little misses the party.

   

Chicken Little continues to miss the party

August 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little bloodied

The Bull Market continues onwards with daily record highs. Chicken Little has fought the bull for a decade, and lost almost every month. I am ready to capitulate emotionally, but so many of my macro predictions, other than a US stock market decline, have proven prescient, that I am not quite ready to quit. 

Chicken Little beaten up 

July 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

 When will the Dow make a new high?

Last month I wrote, "The Dow Jones Industrials are poised to make a new all-time high. I am likely to end the Chicken Little effort after that new high."  I stand by that statement, but so far the Dow stubbornly refused to take out the high from December of 2024. Here is my performance from inception through last month. 

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June 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The Death of Chicken Little?

Chicken Little has underperformed stocks since I started this blog:

The Dow Jones Industrials are poised to make a new all-time high. I am likely to end the Chicken Little effort after that new high.