Chicken Little's Current thinking

Price 2/20/21Long-termMedium termPositionNext Investment move
Stocks (Dow)31,500NegativeNeutralSmall short - probing actionShort more if bear market begins, buy among the ashes if collapse happens
Bonds (30-year Treasury)2.13%NeutralNegativeUnderweightReduce underweight when 30-year hits 2.81%, consider liquidation if inflation exceeds 6%
Gold$1,785PositiveNegativeUnderweight (0%)Buy if gold makes a new all-time high above $2,000
Crypto (BTC)$56,500PositivePositiveOverweightTrimming overweight on a calendar basis, buy more on 50% decline


Chicken Little makes bitcoin moves

Six months ago, I wrote, "I cannot believe the low price at a mere $11,700 per bitcoin." As I write this, bitcoin price is over $50,000, up over 50% so far in February (18 days) . Chicken Little has sold about 50% of the crypto position. I have also changed the composition of the crypto position toward "alt coins." 

The barrier to investing success is internal 


Revenge of the Sheriff of Nottingham

The 'Sheriff of Nottingham trade' is to target stocks owned by retail investors. This is the opposite of the 'Reditt rebellion'.

Reddit rebellion - buy stock in companies heavily shorted by hedge funds. 

The Revenge of the Sheriff of Nottingham - sell stock in companies heavily owned by Robinhood'ers. 

The Sheriff may get revenge


January 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The lurking great white shark for financial markets is rising interest rates. Chicken Little believes that the bond market will (eventually) raise the cost for borrowing, and thus end the rally in stocks and other risky assets. Interest rates are still low, but have been rising for some months. 

Higher interest rates may be coming