May 2022, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

 The Piper will be paid, the sky is falling, wolf.

What is the chance the coming financial crisis will be greater than the 'Great Depression' of the 1930s? With certainty, the odds are greater than zero. Chicken Little thinks that probability approaches 100%. A financial crisis looms of a magnitude that no one alive has endured. The Fed created the crisis; we are going to pay.

Hooverville, Central Park, NY 1932


Biological Economics

I have just published an academic article on Biological Economics with Professor Jay Phelan from UCLA. Biology has the potential, we argue, to unite the two competing intellectual schools in economics: neoclassical and behavioral. 

Neoclassical economists assume people make perfect decisions (apparently never having met a person). Behavioral economists document certain failures to optimize. Biology can unify and improve economics.  (Click here for the long version of the discussion. )

Economics can be unified by Biology