The Raging Chicken Little Bull

Chicken Little is Bullish. How bullish? So bullish that he owns stocks, so bullish that he wants the stock market to rally, so bullish you should all be very afraid. 

*Chicken Little is a snorting, rip-roaring bull

Chicken Little is Bullish. 

Chicken Little is ready for the stock market to roar. The bull story is perfect and rolls around in my little chicken skull. Company earnings are expected to increase more than 10% in 2017, and those estimates do not include the coming tax cuts from the Republicans.

Profits are rising. 

Technology continues to improve our world every day in many ways including new medicines, more efficient factories, and added convenience through smart phones. 

Chicken Little is a rational bull. 

The process of Chicken Little changing from chicken to bull was measured. 

Step 1: Chicken Little criteria for bullishness. May 2016

Step 2: Chicken Little buys stocks. July 2016 

Step 3: Chicken Little falls out of love with bonds. August 2016

Step 4: President Trump will be good for stocks (within hours of the elections). November 2016 

The Republicans are going to give money to companies

Anyone who is bullish should be frightened by the Chicken Bull. 

My story is coherent. Over the last few years, I laid out the criteria for bullishness. I correctly analyzed the decreased prospects for bonds, and rotated into stocks. Stocks currently are going to benefit from rising profits and decreased taxes. 

What is there not to like? 

Woody Allen said, "the brain is my second favorite organ." When it comes to financial markets, Chicken Little disagrees. 

The brain, or more precisely the lizard brain, is the most important organ when it comes to markets. What is interesting, is that for most people, emotions are reliably wrong. Because, my bullishness is probably wrong-headed, Chicken Little's investment in stocks remains tiny (under 1% of the portfolio). 

Chicken Little's bullishness is possibly a signal of rough times ahead.