Chicken Little Kiss and Tell

On August 11, 2016, Chicken Little broke up with Treasury bonds, his primary investment for almost a decade. In subsequent months, Chicken Little told of three investment "first dates" - Buying US Stocks, Shorting Non-US stocks, and Shorting gold. This posts updates those investment first dates. 

Chicken Little & New Investment Love

Here is the summary of the status and outcome of these three new investments. While the amounts of loss and gain are very small, a new investment could become significant over the coming years. 

InvestmentstatusProfit (loss)
Buying US StocksOpen (Gain)+8 Basis points
Shorting Non-US stocksClosed (Loss)-21 Basis points
Shorting GoldClosed (Gain) +21 Basis points
Total+8 Basis points

Chicken Little criteria for keeping an investment. 

As detailed in the rules, Chicken Little has two main criteria for keeping an investment.

#1: The investment has to be profitable. 
#2: Chicken Little has to have faith in the investment. 

Chicken Little sells losers, keeps winners

Date #1: Buying US Stocks 

Chicken Little believes in momentum. That means assets that are going up in price tend to continue to go up in price. The bull market in US stocks in 8 years old. A 5th grader with a ruler can do the charting. 

Chicken Little fears a deflationary depression so buying stocks is emotionally challenging. Nevertheless, in a series of well-defined steps, Chicken Little now has 2% of the portfolio invested in US stocks, the most since the late 1990's 

Date #2: Shorting Non-US stocks 

Every stock market in the world goes up almost every hour of every day. Chicken Little sells losing positions. Thus, Date #2 of shorting non-US stocks was a short date, with no dessert or coffee.

Date #3: Shorting Gold. 

Chicken Little made money on the short gold position. Nevertheless, the investment did not last long as Chicken Little still believes more loose money is coming.  Chicken Little would prefer to be a buyer of gold than a seller. As of now, however, Chicken Little has no position in gold. 


  1. what is your out take on gold and silver currently?

    1. David, Thank you for your comment. I covered my gold short and am now flat. I still fear more monetary printing, so would like to get long gold. I have never really traded silver.

      What is you position and what is your thinking? Terry

  2. Well, I physically stack gold/slv, because as a nation we've been propped up on printed funny money since 2008. Since the November 2016 election, the stock market has added $3 trillion in value (http://www.independent.co.uk/…/wall-street-investors-3-tril…), but nothing has changed economically in the real world. A stock market bubble, an inflated currency, a national debt of $20 trillion, a $474 billion/year deficit spending and a GDP of 0.8% (http://www.cnbc.com/…/atlanta-fed-downgrades-us-q1-gdp-view…).

    But that's just me. I'm a small timer, and make it a habit now to possess a little here and now when I can, for the long run. It has been a hobby of mine to read up on the financial world though. Currently reading a book by Nomi Prims titled All the President's Bankers, and an old book by Ron Paul titled End the Fed. So, you can see from what I'm reading as to where my thoughts are in regards to the US financial system.

    1. Hi David,

      I largely agree with your views. I wrote a piece published called 'End the Fed' did not realize until after publication that I had consciously or subconsciously copied Ron Paul's title.

      I agree that gold is one of the most diversifying assets to own. I have not purchased any yet, thinking it could still go down in price. Perhaps I'm being a bit too cute and should just buy some now.