5/9/19

April 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

In April 2019, Chicken Little shorted Tesla (again) and bought crypto (again) while waiting for the overall stock market to crash. Tesla has a demand problem, and the world's central banks are printing us to ruin. 
A narrow path to avoid disaster


April 2019 performance

The Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.35% in April while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.94%. For the year to date, Chicken Little has produced small gains while stock markets around the world have had record performances (e.g., "best stock market start since 1928") .


Apr 2019YTD 2019
Chicken Little-0.35%1.81%
Dow Jones Industrials1.94%13.89%

2039 Question: Mommy and Daddy, "Why didn't you sell your stocks before the depression?" 

When we look back in time, we may wonder who how we could have lost so much money in our investments. The signs will seem so obvious. For example, the US Government has the most debt in the history of the world, and is printing money to pay its bills. Shouldn't we all be hiding in fear?


A rational chicken would hide

"Stocks keep going up," is the answer to why many people own risky assets in the face of obvious problems. Our brains are built to repeat behaviors that have worked in the past. As long as stocks go up, we are unable to understand the magnitude of the economic problems in the world. 

And indeed, risky assets continued to go up in price through the end of April 2019. Stock markets all around the world have returned more than 10% in just four months ("best since 1928!"). Bitcoin is again the winner so far this year (as it was in 2017) with a return so far this year of nearly 40%.


AssetSymbolApr 2019YTD 2019
Dow Jones IndustrialsDIA1.94%13.89%
Non-US StocksEFA2.38%12.93%
Emerging Market StocksEEM1.51%11.62%
US Long-Term BondsTLT-2.00%2.40%
GoldGLD-1.32%-0.70%
BitcoinBTC28.58%39.69%


May 2019 portfolio positions

Chicken Little remains positioned for a deflationary depression by owning cash and Treasuries. 

Chicken Little has returned to shorting Tesla -- see article

In addition, Chicken Little has re-entered the cryptoworld buying a bit as he ponders the coming mother of all monetary bubbles

Chicken Little is planning to re-commence broader bear market operations by shorting the stock market at the correct time.







Previous month's report                 Subsequent Month's report




Chicken LittleDow Jones Industrials
2019 (through April)1.81%13.89%
20181.27%-3.63%
20174.57%27.72%
2016-1.92%16.08%
2015 (April through Dec)-2.49%-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)3.11%62.29%

2 comments :

  1. I am curious to hear your thoughts on portfolios with long-term time horizons. For example, a 27 year old with an IRA account. Empirical evidence tells us that market timing in nearly impossible, and that we should own stocks for the long run. If we define risk as permanent loss of capital, will those with staying power ultimately win?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dear Addison,

    Thank you for your post. Conventional wisdom argues that stocks are the best option for people with long investment horizons.

    I do not agree. My position is obviously heterodox.
    We are going to drown in debt. The US deficit is among the largest in history while we have almost no unemployment and no large scale war. Thus, when the next recession arrives, we will suffer.

    The stock market did well in the past, but the current situation is different and worse. Save yourself by hiding in short-term treasuries. Buy a bit of crypto with your Vegas money.

    Terry

    ReplyDelete