May 2019 was the best single month in the history of the Chicken Little Portfolio. June 2019 saw some of the biggest changes in the history of the portfolio. Chicken Little exited the Tesla short position, dramatically reduced his long Treasury position, and retained a cryptocurrency beachhead. The baby bear market operation was murdered by Jay Powell.
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| Chicken Little prepares for (financial) Armageddon |
June 2019 performance
The Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.10% in June while the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared over 7%.
"Don't confuse a bull market for brains," is a famous Wall Street line. In 2019, central banks around the world returned to electronically printing money at an historical pace. Consequently, every asset has gone up in price.
Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies, are the winners so far with returns of close to 200% in the first six months of 2019. Stocks, bonds, and gold have also had excellent returns of 10% or more. It is almost impossible to have bought an asset that has gone down in price in 2019.
While a drunk monkey throwing darts could make money in 2019, the economic picture continues to deteriorate around the world. Here are some headlines from the last few weeks in the Wall Street Journal and the Economist.
"Don't confuse a bull market for brains," is a famous Wall Street line. In 2019, central banks around the world returned to electronically printing money at an historical pace. Consequently, every asset has gone up in price.
Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies, are the winners so far with returns of close to 200% in the first six months of 2019. Stocks, bonds, and gold have also had excellent returns of 10% or more. It is almost impossible to have bought an asset that has gone down in price in 2019.
While a drunk monkey throwing darts could make money in 2019, the economic picture continues to deteriorate around the world. Here are some headlines from the last few weeks in the Wall Street Journal and the Economist.
What is an investor to do in a world with a faltering economy and soaring asset prices? If you believe that the bad economic news is temporary, the answer is to buy stocks. If, however, you believe that more bad economic news will follow, the answer is to get more defensive.
July 2019 portfolio positions
The Chicken Little Portfolio has indeed gotten even more defensive. Chicken Little sold just over half of his 30-Year Treasury bond portfolio and is maintaining a beachhead in cryptocurrency. The cash hoard continues to swell, seeking an eventual set of depression-era purchases in years to come.
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