June 2019 Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

May 2019 was the best single month in the history of the Chicken Little Portfolio. June 2019 saw some of the biggest changes in the history of the portfolio. Chicken Little exited the Tesla short position, dramatically reduced his long Treasury position, and retained a cryptocurrency beachhead. The baby bear market operation was murdered by Jay Powell. 

Chicken Little prepares for (financial) Armageddon

June 2019 performance

The Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.10% in June while the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared over 7%.    

June 2019YTD 2019
Chicken Little-0.10%7.14%
Dow Jones Industrials7.29%15.23%

"Don't confuse a bull market for brains," is a famous Wall Street line. In 2019, central banks around the world returned to electronically printing money at an historical pace. Consequently, every asset has gone up in price. 

Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies, are the winners so far with returns of close to 200% in the first six months of 2019. Stocks, bonds, and gold have also had excellent returns of 10% or more. It is almost impossible to have bought an asset that has gone down in price in 2019. 

AssetSymbolJune 2019YTD 2019
Dow Jones IndustrialsDIA7.29%15.23%
Non-US StocksEFA5.85%14.16%
Emerging Market StocksEEM6.17%10.65%
US Long-Term BondsTLT0.74%10.18%

While a drunk monkey throwing darts could make money in 2019, the economic picture continues to deteriorate around the world. Here are some headlines from the last few weeks in the Wall Street Journal and the Economist.

What is an investor to do in a world with a faltering economy and soaring asset prices? If you believe that the bad economic news is temporary, the answer is to buy stocks. If, however, you believe that more bad economic news will follow, the answer is to get more defensive.  

July 2019 portfolio positions

The Chicken Little Portfolio has indeed gotten even more defensive. Chicken Little sold just over half of his 30-Year Treasury bond portfolio and is maintaining a beachhead in cryptocurrency. The cash hoard continues to swell, seeking an eventual set of depression-era purchases in years to come. 

Previous month's report                 Subsequent Month's report

Chicken LittleDow Jones Industrials
2019 (through June)7.14%15.23%
2015 (April through Dec)-2.49%-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)8.51%64.18%

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