August 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Low interest rates cause economic harm and are an indictor of a sick economy. Interest rates in the US continue to collapse toward those in Japan and Germany. Conventional wisdom states that low interest rates "support the economy." This is wrong and dangerous. 

US interest rates are turning Japanese. 

August 2019 performance

The Chicken Little Portfolio gained 3.21% in August while the  the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.38%.   

The Chicken Little Portfolio has returned over 10% year to date. Normally, this would be cause for celebration. However, this strong performance is primarily caused by the collapse in US interest rates. This is unequivocally bad, so I am filled with dread. The Depression lurks and it will have myriad unpleasant manifestations. 

August 2019YTD 2019
Chicken Little3.21%10.36%
Dow Jones Industrials-1.38%14.86%

August was a turbulent month where the safe haven assets of gold and long-term Treasury bonds prospered. Other assets saw large ups and downs, while ending the month with modest losses. Bitcoin remains the winner so far in 2019. 

AssetSymbolAugust 2019YTD 2019
Dow Jones IndustrialsDIA-1.38%14.86%
Non-US StocksEFA-1.88%9.88%
Emerging Market StocksEEM-3.83%3.61%
US Long-Term BondsTLT10.90%22.74%

September 2019 portfolio positions

The Chicken Little Portfolio remains prepared for a deflationary depression. In August, the portfolio trimmed its 30-year treasury bond portfolio further, and retreated from the cryptocurrency position. The cash pile continues to grow awaiting opportunities to buy assets at Depression-level prices.

Previous month's report                 Subsequent Month's report

Chicken LittleDow Jones Industrials
2019 (through August)10.36%14.86%
2015 (April through Dec)-2.49%-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)11.77%63.66%


  1. How much of a % drop in the stock market would you need to see prior to deploying your cash?

    1. Thank you for your questions. I might consider buying a huge dip, maybe dow 10,000 or so (just a guess).

      Eventually, I think stocks will decline by more than 90% and the long-term purchase will take place at Dow 1,000 amidst doom and gloom