November 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

November 2019 was a breakout month for US stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average set eight all-time record highs, and closed above 28,000 for the first time in history.  The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates and printing money at historic rates. So far, the Fed has succeeded in inflating asset prices. 

The Federal Reserve has resumed e-printing

November 2019 performance

The Chicken Little Portfolio lost -0.35% in November while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.88%.   

Nov 2019YTD 2019
Chicken Little-0.35%9.48%
Dow Jones Industrials3.88%22.67%

2019: Free money so far

So far 2019 is a year, like 2017, where every investment has had great returns. The only way not to get rich in 2019 has been to be conservative. 

AssetSymbol2017YTD 2019
Dow Jones IndustrialsDIA27.72%22.67%
Non-US StocksEFA24.92%18.33%
Emerging Market StocksEEM37.13%9.71%
US Long-Term BondsTLT9.08%17.52%

The US Federal Reserve recommenced e-printing of money in September 2019. The Fed has created $300 Billion in new money in the last three months, a pace of $100 Billion a month, and close to its maximum rate of money e-printing in the history of the United States. 

The Fed must be very afraid of a looming problem.  The Fed is quietly panicking in the form of 3 interest rate cuts and running the e-printing presses vigorously. 

You can view the Fed's purchases on their website: 

Here is a screen shot from the Fed's website: 

December 2019 portfolio positions

The Chicken Little Portfolio remains prepared for a depression. Will the depression be inflationary or deflationary? For almost a decade, I have believed in a deflationary depression. 

Now, I am open to the possibility that the depression could be inflationary. Long-term bonds would be destroyed by inflation, and I have sold almost all of them. I have gone back and forth on owning crypto and gold. The portfolio had no gold and no crypto on December 1, 2019. 

Previous month's report                 Subsequent Month's report

Chicken LittleDow Jones Industrials
2019 (through end of Nov)9.48%22.67%
2015 (April through Dec)-2.49%-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)10.88%74.79%

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