2/20/21

Chicken Little's Current thinking

Price 2/20/21Long-termMedium termPositionNext Investment move
Stocks (Dow)31,500NegativeNeutralSmall short - probing actionShort more if bear market begins, buy among the ashes if collapse happens
Bonds (30-year Treasury)2.13%NeutralNegativeUnderweightReduce underweight when 30-year hits 2.81%, consider liquidation if inflation exceeds 6%
Gold$1,785PositiveNegativeUnderweight (0%)Buy if gold makes a new all-time high above $2,000
Crypto (BTC)$56,500PositivePositiveOverweightTrimming overweight on a calendar basis, buy more on 50% decline

2 comments :

  1. After 5+ years Chicken Little has annualized ~4% versus the market at ~14%. Can Chicken Little ever make up this gap? A ~40% drop in equities could bring the market and Chicken Little approximately even - assuming crypto and all other non-cash holdings are uncorrelated. Seems like a large amount of wood to chop. Unsure if the crypto trade is an attempt to make up ground--particularly given the mediocre conviction?

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  2. Thank you Addison - I like chop wood comment.

    Crypto correlation to equities using daily returns is over 80% in recent months.

    4% return with negative beta and vol of 3% - a low risk approach.

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