September 2022, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The Sky is Falling. All assets have lost considerable value so far in 2022. Chicken Little predicts more extreme losses. What is next after the plunge? The Fed will try cutting rates and restarting the printing presses. However, loose money leads to financial disaster. The Fed will end up even more disgraced than they are now.  

More Fed printing & problems ahead

September 2022 performance
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 8.61% in September 2022 while the Chicken Little portfolio lost 0.63%. Year to date, Chicken Little has lost 4.01%, while the Dow has lost 19.62%

Sept 2022YTD 2022
Chicken Little-0.63%-4.01%
Dow Jones Industrials-8.61%-19.62%

Double digit losses for all major financial assets other than houses. Gold the 'winner' with a loss of just under 10%. Crypto devastated with a 58% loss for Bitcoin, and over 90% loss for many other coins. 

AssetSymbolSept 2022YTD 2022
Dow Jones IndustrialsDIA-8.61%-19.62%
Non-US StocksEFA-9.00%-26.91%
Emerging Market StocksEEM-11.43%-27.86%
US Long-Term BondsTLT-8.33%-29.90%

October 2022 portfolio position
The Chicken Little Portfolio remains prepared for financial disaster. Hiding mainly in cash and short-term Treasuries. Two small changes in the previous month. 

First, increased the short stock position - the disaster looms. The rallies will be sharp, but declines can accelerate us below Dow 20,000 soon. 

Second, bought some three year Treasury notes with cash. Interest rates may continue to rise, but the three year note is relatively safe - does not seem likely to me that the US will default soon. 

October 8, 2022, Dow: 29,297

Chicken LittleDow Jones Industrials
2022 (through Sept)-4.01%-19.62%
2015 (April through Dec)-2.49%-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)20.37%88.53%

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