Stocks are rallying, bonds are rallying, gold is rallying, is the storm over? No. Not surprisingly, Chicken Little sees nothing but storm clouds ahead.
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| Chicken Little sees only the clouds |
October 2022 performance
Stocks bottomed on October 13, 2022 and have been on a bullish tear since. Almost zero down days for stocks since Oct 13, and gains in the major stock markets of 10-20%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 13.80% higher in October 2022 while the Chicken Little portfolio lost 4.02%. Year to date, Chicken Little has lost 7.87%, while the Dow has lost 8.53%.
October saw divergences: long-term US government bonds saw large declines, while US stocks rallied aggressively. Bitcoin had a bounce in the midst of a terrible year. Gold was flat.
Year to date, losses continue across all major asset classes with bonds having an historically, catastrophic year, and crypto devastated.
November 2022 portfolio position
The Chicken Little Portfolio remains prepared for financial disaster. Hiding mainly in cash and short-term Treasuries.
The only change to the portfolio was a move to buy some 3-8 year bonds (see article). Long-term US bonds may have bottomed in late October for some period of time. That said, longer term, Chicken Little believes that real interest rates will continue to rise.
November 24, 2022, Dow: 34,194
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