March 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Is there going to be a deflationary debt crisis in the US with high real interest rates? I believe so. The investments to own in a deflationary, and high real interest rate, environment are cash and short term t-bills. Crypto and gold can serve as insurance in situations where it becomes hard to obtain and use cash.

Crisis investments

March 2023 performance

Chicken Little is invested in treasury bills. There will be no big swings in portfolio value. In March, the Chicken Little Portfolio gained 81 basis points while the The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.11%. Year to date, both Chicken Little and Dow have gains of under 1% 

Mar 2023YTD 2023
Chicken Little0.81%0.59%
Dow Jones Industrials2.11%0.90%

Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Credit Suisse all failed in March of 2023. This is, I believe, an important step on the road to paying the piper for the mistakes of Central Bank malfeasance.  As such, my confidence in the worst case outcome increases. 

In a deflationary depression, cash is king. Crypto, Gold, diamonds, and similar items can serve as insurance in case it becomes difficult to access or use cash. Accordingly, I have been moving the Chicken Little portfolio to cash and safety. 

Could there be an inflationary crash? Yes, as the Fed can ramp up printing. In an inflationary crash, cash is a terrible investment. If an inflationary crash becomes more likely, I will increase the crypto and gold investments.

March 2023 was a positive month for all major asset classes. The world welcoming financial bad news as a route to more printing by central banks. Even though the news was bad, the belief that the Fed will save us caused all markets to rise.  The biggest winner was crypto closing in on doubling in 2023. A blind person throwing darts would have made money in March of 2023.  

AssetSymbolMar 2023YTD 2023
Dow Jones IndustrialsDIA2.11%0.90%
Non-US StocksEFA3.13%8.96%
Emerging Market StocksEEM3.22%4.12%
US Long-Term BondsTLT4.81%7.37%

April 2023 portfolio position
The Chicken Little Portfolio remains prepared for financial disaster. In March, I moved 2% the portfolio into crypto. Seeing crypto as a defensive play against crises - outside the banking system and outside the currency. I am likely to buy gold if gold can make a new high substantially above $2,000/oz. Not likely to buy anything other than t-bills, crypto and gold. 

Chicken LittleDow Jones Industrials
2023 (through March)0.59%0.90%
2015 (April through Dec)-2.49%-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)18.73%119.95%

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