November 2017, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

In November 2017, the Chicken Little Portfolio gained 0.17% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average roared 4.12%.

Investing requires emotional intelligence. Particularly in the form of patience. Chicken Little is very negative on risk assets, but has learned the importance of momentum.

Chicken Little is waiting to commence bear market operations

November 2017 performance

Chicken Little had a modestly winning month in November 2017 to continue a modestly winning year. Not to jinx the portfolio, but Chicken Little would be happy to end the year of 2017 up 3.32%.  Making over 3% in a low rate environment, without taking any risk, is great. 

Nov '17YTD 2017
Chicken Little0.17%3.32%
Dow Jones Industrials4.12%25.14%

All assets were positive in the month led by bitcoin's stunning 45% gain (in the month). Global equities continue their amazing rise, with the Dow Jones industrial average YTD return of over 25%. 

Bitcoin surpassed $11,000 this month. Conventional wisdom preaches that stocks are the best investments. However, in 11 months this year, Bitcoin has returned as much as stocks have returned in several decades.

The popular press interprets the rising stock market as an endorsement of the economy. However, the safe assets of long-term treasuries and gold have gone up this year as well as risky assets. The fact that all assets, safe and unsafe, have rallied, suggests that overall liquidity may be a cause of the rising stock market, not simply a strong economy. 

AssetSymbolNov '17YTD 2017
Dow Jones IndustrialsDIA4.12%25.14%
Non-US StocksEFA1.52%24.32%
Emerging Market StocksEEM0.46%33.36%
US Long-Term BondsTLT0.73%7.19%

December 2017 portfolio positions

As of December 1, 2017, Chicken Little is long US Treasuries with a good amount of cash. In November 2017, Chicken Little made no changes to the portfolio. 

Chicken Little remains ready for a bear market in risk assets.  However, the start of the bear market in stocks and other risky investments continues to lie out of sight. Chicken Little is prepared to be as patient as necessary (years) before beginning Bear Market Operations.  

Previous month's report                           Subsequent Month's report

Chicken LittleDow Jones Industrials
2017 (through Nov 30)3.32%25.14%
2015 (3/31 -> 12/31)-2.49%-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)-1.18%44.87%

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