February 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little has begun a first, baby bear market action. Because a variety of markets were weak in February, the odds that January 26, 2018 was the top have increased. Accordingly, Chicken Little has begun a first probing bear market action. (Follow up: this bear market raid ended in April 2018.)

Chicken Little makes a first bear market move

February 2018 performance

In February 2018, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 1.39% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.05%

Feb 2018YTD 2018
Chicken Little-1.39%-3.03%
Dow Jones Industrials-4.05%1.46%

One month ago, I wrote, "January was a typical blow-off top with extremely high returns in stock markets around the world." Consistent with the idea of a blow-off top, February was a negative month for a wide-variety of markets. The broad declines, across stocks and bonds and gold, suggest that we may be approaching a sharper decline. 

AssetSymbolFeb 2018YTD 2018
Dow Jones IndustrialsDIA-4.05%1.46%
Non-US StocksEFA-4.83%-0.06%
Emerging Market StocksEEM-5.90%1.91%
US Long-Term BondsTLT-3.24%-6.19%

March 2018 portfolio positions

Chicken Little is long US Treasuries with a good amount of cash. Chicken Little has a modest short position in US stocks -- the first such short position since 2016.  

Previous month's report                           Subsequent Month's report

Chicken LittleDow Jones Industrials
2018 (through February)-3.03%1.46%
2015 (April through Dec)-2.49%-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)-3.02%50.01%

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