February 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little has begun a first, baby bear market action. Because a variety of markets were weak in February, the odds that January 26, 2018 was the top have increased. Accordingly, Chicken Little has begun a first probing bear market action. (Follow up: this bear market raid ended in April 2018.)

Chicken Little makes a first bear market move

February 2018 performance

In February 2018, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 1.39% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.05%

	Feb 2018	YTD 2018
Chicken Little	-1.39%	-3.03%
Dow Jones Industrials	-4.05%	1.46%

One month ago, I wrote, "January was a typical blow-off top with extremely high returns in stock markets around the world." Consistent with the idea of a blow-off top, February was a negative month for a wide-variety of markets. The broad declines, across stocks and bonds and gold, suggest that we may be approaching a sharper decline. 

Asset	Symbol	Feb 2018	YTD 2018
Dow Jones Industrials	DIA	-4.05%	1.46%
Non-US Stocks	EFA	-4.83%	-0.06%
Emerging Market Stocks	EEM	-5.90%	1.91%
US Long-Term Bonds	TLT	-3.24%	-6.19%
Gold	GLD	-2.08%	1.09%
Bitcoin	BTC	3.00%	-18.16%

March 2018 portfolio positions

Chicken Little is long US Treasuries with a good amount of cash. Chicken Little has a modest short position in US stocks -- the first such short position since 2016.  

Previous month's report                           Subsequent Month's report

	Chicken Little	Dow Jones Industrials
2018 (through February)	-3.03%	1.46%
2017	4.57%	27.72%
2016	-1.92%	16.08%
2015 (April through Dec)	-2.49%	-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)	-3.02%	50.01%