March 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The US stock market has declined 10% since January 26, 2018. Chicken Little predicts further declines. 

A Long Way Down

March 2018 performance

In March 2018, the Chicken Little Portfolio gained 1.74%  while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3.33%. 

Mar 2018YTD 2018
Chicken Little1.74%-1.34%
Dow Jones Industrials-3.33%-1.91%

In 2017, asset markets gave free money to everyone. In 2018, it has been much harder to make money. Most investments are close to zero in total return. The exception is bitcoin which has dropped 65% from its peak price of $20,000, and 44% year to date.  

AssetSymbolMar 2018YTD 2018
Dow Jones IndustrialsDIA-3.33%-1.91%
Non-US StocksEFA-0.84%-0.90%
Emerging Market StocksEEM0.54%2.46%
US Long-Term BondsTLT2.62%-3.52%

Could January 26, 2018 have been *the* top in the stock market? YesLast November, I predicted, "a massive, historic drop in price for all risk assets - stocks, real estate, and (almost) all bonds. Most people will be financially ruined by this bear market." (click for November article.

April 2018 portfolio positions

Chicken Little is long US Treasuries with a good amount of cash. Chicken Little has a modest short position in US stocks. The only change in the portfolio in the month was the addition of a modest short position in gold. Remember, Chicken Little predicts a *deflationary* crash -- one where gold goes down in price along with stocks.

Previous month's report                           Subsequent Month's report

Chicken LittleDow Jones Industrials
2018 (through March)-1.34%-1.91%
2015 (April through Dec)-2.49%-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)-1.33%45.03%

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