July 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

In July 2018, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.65% while the Dow soared 4.80%. The U.S. stock market remains stuck in a range - The Dow has not exceeded the January high of 26,616 nor gone below the February low of 23,533. 

Bear market ahead? 

July 2018 performance

In July 2018, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.65% while the Dow soared 4.80%. 

	July 2018	YTD 2018
Chicken Little	-0.65%	-1.68%
Dow Jones Industrials	4.80%	3.86%

2018 has been a tough year for investors with the US markets leading the major asset classes. Even US returns have been very modest. 

Asset	Symbol	July 2018	YTD 2018
Dow Jones Industrials	DIA	4.80%	3.86%
Non-US Stocks	EFA	2.80%	-0.11%
Emerging Market Stocks	EEM	3.51%	-4.18%
US Long-Term Bonds	TLT	-1.42%	-4.20%
Gold	GLD	-2.24%	-6.19%
Bitcoin	BTC	21.02%	-40.19%

August 2018 portfolio positions

Chicken Little closed out the short position in gold this month. The trade was profitable as gold has dropped about $100/ounce since the short gold trade was initiated. Chicken Little still believes in a deflationary Depression where gold will go much lower over the coming years. It was a great trade in that gold has declined persistently since the trade was placed and now sits at the lows for the last 12 months. 

Chicken Little remains prepared for a deflationary depression by being long US Treasuries with a good amount of cash. 

Previous month's report                           Subsequent Month's report

	Chicken Little	Dow Jones Industrials
2018 (through July)	-1.68%	3.86%
2017	4.57%	27.72%
2016	-1.92%	16.08%
2015 (April through Dec)	-2.49%	-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)	-1.67%	53.57%