April 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Equity markets bounced 33% off their March 2020 lows. Chicken Little believes that the mother of all bear markets deserves a world class bear market rally. Broad economic pain cannot be stopped by government overspending and e-printing. Look out below. 

Bear Market bounce (click for video) 

April 2020 performance

The Chicken Little Portfolio gained 0.45% in April 2020 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 10.93% (best month since the 1930s for some parts of the market).

Apr 2020YTD 2020
Chicken Little0.45%6.21%
Dow Jones Industrials10.93%-14.10%
April 2020 was a great month for financial risk-taking. Consider that bitcoin soared 40% in one month -- roughly equal to five years of stock market gains. Every major asset class saw gains in April. The only way to lose in April was not to take risk. 

AssetSymbolApr 2020YTD 2020
Dow Jones IndustrialsDIA10.93%-14.10%
Non-US StocksEFA5.82%-18.53%
Emerging Market StocksEEM7.35%-18.34%
US Long-Term BondsTLT1.21%23.60%

May 2020 portfolio positions
Chicken Little remains entirely in cash and relatively short-term Treasury obligations. Chicken Little believes that government actions that are purported to protect the economy are making a bad economic situation far worse. 

If this rally is the mother of all bear market bounces it can go much higher, and go on for much longer. However, a new all-time high on the Dow above 30,000 would prove that this is a rally, a bull market, and not a bear market bounce. 

Because I believe this is a massive bear market rally, and not a continuation of the bull market that started in 2009, Chicken Little is hiding in cash, waiting for the storm to subside and trying not to get hurt financially.  

Previous month's report                 Subsequent Month's report

Chicken LittleDow Jones Industrials
2020 (through April)6.21%-14.10%
2015 (April through Dec)-2.49%-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)17.28%52.77%

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