11/1/20

October 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance


"Buy as much bitcoin as you can afford to lose." - Recently, I shared my crypto lust with a friend in this manner.  Upon reflection, however, perhaps it is time to view the US Dollar as riskier than Bitcoin. The Fed is printing dollars like crazy. While there are literally trillions more dollars today than a year ago, there will only ever by 21 million bitcoins. 




Time to Change the Currency Guards?


October 2020 performance

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.33% in October 2020, while the Chicken Little portfolio gained 0.25%

Oct 2020YTD 2020
Chicken Little0.25%5.94%
Dow Jones Industrials-4.33%-5.45%

October 2020 may have been a turning point. Both stocks and treasury bonds had substantial losses in the same month. Bitcoin remains the winner for the month and the year. The combination of losses in both bonds and stocks along with gains in crypto may signal the end of the print and pump scheme by the Federal Reserve.  

Year to date in 2020, stocks are losers, and the Chicken Little assets of gold, treasury bonds, and crypto have been the winners. 

AssetSymbolOct 2020YTD 2020
Dow Jones IndustrialsDIA-4.33%-5.45%
Non-US StocksEFA-3.50%-10.36%
Emerging Market StocksEEM1.39%1.01%
US Long-Term BondsTLT-3.25%17.54%
GoldGLD-0.52%23.30%
BitcoinBTC29.25%90.23%

Corporate profits and the economy continue to perform below year ago levels. The Federal Reserve is printing money at the fastest pace in the history of the world. Up until recently, the market has rewarded the Fed by pumping up both stock and bond prices. But, now, perhaps, is the turn. 

Chicken Little continues to believe that the US Federal Reserve is both incompetent and corrupt. The monetary shenanigans will end in tears and worse. (Click here for the Fed is Corrupt. here for the Fed is Incompetent.


November 2020 portfolio positions

Chicken  Little has slightly increased the portfolio investments in the idea that the Fed is going to destroy the dollar and the US economy. Chicken Little has 3% of the portfolio in gold and crypto. This should be viewed as a beachhead, a persistent position that can be rapidly expanded in the correct circumstances. See February 2020 article "Chicken Little establishes a crypto beachhead". 




Previous month's report                 Subsequent Month's report

Chicken LittleDow Jones Industrials
2020 (through Oct)5.94%-5.45%
20199.03%24.82%
20181.27%-3.63%
20174.57%27.72%
2016-1.92%16.08%
2015 (April through Dec)-2.49%-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)16.99%68.15%

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