April 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The Frog in the Pot?

The Chicken Little thesis remains unchanged for nearly a decade. That US Federal government, and non-US central banks, have taken actions that will cause a crisis. Overspending and e-printing money lead to short term (or medium term) positives with enormous risk. Real interest rates will, in this view, continue to rise until the crisis strikes. 

Rising real interest rates will kill the economy 

April 2024 performance
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.69% in April 2024. The Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.38%. Year to date, the Dow is up 1.04% while Chicken Little is up 2.24%

Apr 2024YTD 2024
Chicken Little-0.38%2.24%
Dow Jones Industrials-4.69%1.04%

April 2024 was a broadly bearish month. Long-term treasuries had a very negative month losing 6.09% (in a month). The only winner in the month was gold, which continued to hit new all-time highs. Year to date, all major asset classes are positive except for long-term treasuries, which are having a very bad year. 

AssetSymbolApr 2024YTD 2024
Dow Jones IndustrialsDIA-4.69%1.04%
Non-US StocksEFA-3.24%2.55%
Emerging Market StocksEEM-0.22%1.94%
US Long-Term BondsTLT-6.09%-9.85%

May 2024 portfolio position
Like a stopped watch, the Chicken Little portfolio remains positioned for financial apocalypse. No change in position in the portfolio. Mainly in cash with a little gold and a little Ether and a modest short position. 

Chicken LittleDow Jones Industrials
2024 (through April)2.24%1.04%
2015 (April through Dec)-2.49%-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)23.14%155.05%

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