The Frog in the Pot?
The Chicken Little thesis remains unchanged for nearly a decade. That US Federal government, and non-US central banks, have taken actions that will cause a crisis. Overspending and e-printing money lead to short term (or medium term) positives with enormous risk. Real interest rates will, in this view, continue to rise until the crisis strikes.
| Rising real interest rates will kill the economy |
April 2024 performance
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.69% in April 2024. The Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.38%. Year to date, the Dow is up 1.04% while Chicken Little is up 2.24%
April 2024 was a broadly bearish month. Long-term treasuries had a very negative month losing 6.09% (in a month). The only winner in the month was gold, which continued to hit new all-time highs. Year to date, all major asset classes are positive except for long-term treasuries, which are having a very bad year.
May 2024 portfolio position
Like a stopped watch, the Chicken Little portfolio remains positioned for financial apocalypse. No change in position in the portfolio. Mainly in cash with a little gold and a little Ether and a modest short position.
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