Still out of sync with markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.60% in October 2024. The Chicken Little Portfolio gained 0.17%. Year to date, the Dow is up 12.97% while Chicken Little is up 3.74%.
October 2024 was negative month for most major asset classes. US stocks had very mild losses, non-US stocks had bigger losses, Long-term US Treasuries had a disastrous month, and gold was the biggest winner.
It has been a good year for investors so far. Year to date, all major asset classes are showing strong, positive returns except for long-term US Treasury bonds which have lost over 5% (including interest payments). Bitcoin and gold are the best performing assets.
October 2024 portfolio position
The Chicken Little portfolio remains positioned for financial apocalypse. Two changes in position to note.
First, Chicken Little has purchased some long-term US Treasury bonds yielding close to 5%. I have been predicted higher real interest rates for years, so this move may seem strange. However, at almost 5% there is some return to compensate for the obvious risks, and I am still underweight treasury bonds.
Note: I exited the last of my treasury bonds in March of 2020, when long-term US treasury rates were just above 1% (see post). Now that rates have risen 400 basis points, and some long-term treasuries have lost half their value, I re-enter with an undersized position.
Second, I am continuing to increase my precious metal position, and will add some crypto soon. This is primarily to provide an alternative to fiat currencies depending on how the looming debt crisis (that I fear) unfolds.
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