Chicken Little still scared of US Debt
The central thesis of Chicken Little has been that massive government debt will cause real interest rates to rise and, consequently, asset prices to fall. I am approaching an entire decade of being wrong about the US stock market, which continues to rise.
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| Powerful Bull Market shrugs off Debt |
November 2024 performance
After President Trump's victory, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 7.03% in November 2024. The Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.01%. Year to date, the Dow is up 20.91% while Chicken Little is up 3.73%.
November 2024 was an excellent month for US stocks and an historic month for crypto. Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 and remains the best performing asset over every time period since its creation. Any modest amount invested in bitcoin 10 years ago would have set an investor up for life.
It has been a good year for investors so far. Year to date, all major asset classes are showing positive returns except for long-term US Treasury bonds which have lost over 2% (including interest payments). Non-US stocks have lagged significantly behind US stocks. Gold has outperformed all assets except for crypto.
December 2024 portfolio position
The Chicken Little portfolio remains positioned for financial apocalypse. One trade in November: I have re-entered a modest position in crypto. Not because I expect short-term gains, but to continue to build up the non-fiat currency part of the portfolio.
US government debt continues to set new records every month. The most obvious solution (from the government's perspective), will be to inflate away the debt. Consider that the 20% cumulative inflation during the Biden administration reduced the real debt by 20%. Gold, silver, and crypto now make up 14% of the Chicken Little portfolio as a hedge against more government malfeasance.
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