May 2025, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little Still Bearish

Here are three important predictions I have made: 

1. The US budget deficit is large and that is a problem. 

2. Interest rates will rise.

3. Bitcoin at $11,700 was a huge buy. 

A stock market decline is next and, subsequently, more social unrest. 

Stocks next, then more social unrest

May 2025 Performance

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.12% in May 2025. The Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.14%. Through the end of May, the Dow has lost 0.12% in 2025 while the Chicken Little Portfolio has gained 1.45% 

	May 2025	YTD 2025
Chicken Little	-0.14%	1.45%
Dow Jones Industrials	4.12%	-0.12%

May 2025 was a strong month for stocks around the world with gains of over 4% in the US, the Non-US developed markets, and emerging markets. Bitcoin rallied back to all-time highs while US Treasuries slipped. Year to date, gold remains the best performer with a gain of over 25% in the first five months of 2025. 

Asset	Symbol	May 2025	YTD 2025
Dow Jones Industrials	DIA	4.12%	-0.12%
Non-US Stocks	EFA	4.79%	17.46%
Emerging Market Stocks	EEM	4.02%	8.85%
US Long-Term Bonds	TLT	-2.81%	0.24%
Gold	GLD	-0.06%	25.39%
Bitcoin	BTC	9.74%	11.14%

June 2025 portfolio position

Chicken Little re-initiated a significant short position in stocks late in May 2025 (see post: short again). I will close the short position if the Dow makes a new all-time high (45,073). The trade has the potential to lose 6.6% if the Dow makes a new high. The possible benefit is some protection if the economy and the stock market weaken. 

Previous month's report          Subsequent Month's report

	Chicken Little	Dow Jones Industrials
2025 (through May)	1.45%	-0.12%
2024	3.30%	14.71%
2023	2.05%	15.80%
2022	-5.88%	-7.06%
2021	5.11%	20.69%
2020	8.04%	9.27%
2019	9.03%	24.82%
2018	1.27%	-3.63%
2017	4.57%	27.72%
2016	-1.92%	16.08%
2015 (April through Dec)	-2.49%	-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)	26.23%	189.22%