October 2018 Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

"Is this the beginning?"  This was the subject line of an email that I received from Goldman, Sachs & Co. on October 10, 2018.  No. It may be the end of the beginning. I responded to Goldman, "All asset markets have been going down for years except US stocks. 1:  The depression started more than a decade ago. 2: Four horsemen of the stockalypse."

US equities fall along with global risk assets

October 2018 performance

Global financial markets struggled in October 2018. This market turmoil makes it more likely that the deflationary depression will soon catch up with the US. 

In October 2018, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.82% while the Dow lost 4.87% 

Oct 2018YTD 2018
Chicken Little-0.82%-3.04%
Dow Jones Industrials-4.87%3.16%

October was a negative month for all major asset classes except gold. US stocks remain the best performing of the risky assets, and US stocks are alone in producing positive returns so far in 2018. 

AssetSymbolOct 2018YTD 2018
Dow Jones IndustrialsDIA-4.87%3.16%
Non-US StocksEFA-7.97%-9.24%
Emerging Market StocksEEM-8.70%-16.28%
US Long-Term BondsTLT-2.88%-8.61%

November 2018 portfolio positions

Chicken Little remains prepared for a deflationary depression by being long US Treasuries with a good amount of cash. Chicken Little has begun three probing bear market actions. Short emerging markets, short US stocks, and long gold. These positions are small. 

A small position focuses the mind much more than no position. So these small positions are mental training for potentially larger positions if the Dow Jones Industrial Average goes below the February 2018 low of 23,533. 

Previous month's report                           Subsequent Month's report

Chicken LittleDow Jones Industrials
2018 (through Oct)-3.04%3.16%
2015 (April through Dec)-2.49%-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)-3.03%52.53%

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