January 2019, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The US Federal Reserve has promised to print as much money as necessary to support the stock market (google search 'Jay Powell invertebrate'). Chicken Little believes that monetary and fiscal madness will end in ruin.  
Chicken Little sees pain ahead

January 2019 performance

In January 2019, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.06% while the Dow soared 7.33%.  Chicken Little avoided pain by exiting bearish positions in December of 2018, "Chicken Little still believes the sky is falling, but perhaps not in the very beginning of 2019."

Jan '19YTD
Chicken Little-0.06%-0.06%
Dow Jones Industrials7.33%7.33%

January 2019 was a month were almost all risky investments soared in value after collapsing in the fourth quarter of 2018. 

Where Chair Powell once promised monetary prudence, he recently capitulated to the stock market, and now promises trillions in easy money. Consequently, the punch bowl is temporarily refilled  and the imprudent party continues. 

AssetSymbolJan '19YTD
Dow Jones IndustrialsDIA7.33%7.33%
Non-US StocksEFA6.84%6.84%
Emerging Market StocksEEM10.34%10.34%
US Long-Term BondsTLT0.38%0.38%

February 2019 portfolio positions

Chicken Little believes that the market sets real interest rates, not central banks. And the fact that interest rates have fallen very little in response to the Fed's complicit capitulation is consistent with the market-centric view. 

Prudent or profligate Central Bank, all debt crises end badly. Thus, Chicken Little remains positioned for a deflationary depression by owning only cash and Treasuries. Chicken Little experimented with selling the stock market rally (STFR) in January, but closed that position later in the month. 

Previous month's report                 Subsequent Month's report

Chicken LittleDow Jones Industrials
2019 (through January)-0.06%7.33%
2015 (April through Dec)-2.49%-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)1.22%52.93%

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