7/2/24

June 2024, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Long-Term interest rates are rising

Chicken Little has been completely wrong about the US stock market for close to a decade. My central thesis has been, and remains, that real interest rates will rise, and asset prices will fall. While I have been completely wrong about stocks, I have been right about interest rates. 

US Debt with (eventually) crush asset prices


Interest rate regime may have shifted globally
In 2016, I predicted the end of Japan's bond bull market. See "Regime Shift in Japanese Bonds.

I was 100% correct about Japanese interest rates.  What does being right about Japanese bonds mean for investors in other markets? I believe that the long-term move away from easy money is underway and, consequently, I am not yet ready to abandon my bearish (chicken) stance. 

Furthermore, my correct views on interest rates led me to sell 100% of my US bonds at great prices. Read these posts:


June 2024 performance
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.15% in June 2024. The Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.24%. Year to date, the Dow is up 4.69% while Chicken Little is up 2.52%

June 2024YTD 2024
Chicken Little-0.24%2.52%
Dow Jones Industrials1.15%4.69%

June 2024 was a mixed month for major asset classes. US and emerging market stocks were up in June as were long-term US Treasuries. International developed equity markets slipped, while bitcoin gave back over 8%. 
Year to date, all major asset markets are up except long-term Treasuries, and crypto still the best performing asset class. Gold has had a very strong year with a return of over 12%.

AssetSymbolJune 2024YTD 2024
Dow Jones IndustrialsDIA1.15%4.69%
Non-US StocksEFA-1.80%5.80%
Emerging Market StocksEEM2.61%6.64%
US Long-Term BondsTLT1.47%-5.92%
GoldGLD-0.13%12.47%
BitcoinBTC-8.64%47.02%

July 2024 portfolio position
The Chicken Little portfolio remains positioned for financial apocalypse. Two trades in the month of June. Closed my short equity position with a modest loss, and closed my crypto position (for now) with a modest gain. I still like crypto over the medium- and long-term, just taking a break as I see if interest rates break out to new highs. 



Previous month's report          Subsequent Month's report

Chicken LittleDow Jones Industrials
2024 (through June)2.52%4.69%
20232.05%15.80%
2022-5.88%-7.06%
20215.11%20.69%
20208.04%9.27%
20199.03%24.82%
20181.27%-3.63%
20174.57%27.72%
2016-1.92%16.08%
2015 (April through Dec)-2.49%-0.27%
since inception (3/31/15)23.48%164.27%

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