Consistent with his "Investment Rules," this post describes a psychologically easier trade for Chicken Little of shorting Non-US stocks.
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| Chicken Little is betting against Stocks Outside the US |
11/29/16
Chicken Little First dates: Shorting Non-US stocks.
On August 11, 2016, Chicken Little broke up with Treasury bonds, and began looking for love elsewhere. A prior post describes buying US stocks - a tough position for a doom-and-gloomer.
Consistent with his "Investment Rules," this post describes a psychologically easier trade for Chicken Little of shorting Non-US stocks.
Consistent with his "Investment Rules," this post describes a psychologically easier trade for Chicken Little of shorting Non-US stocks.
11/21/16
Chicken Little First Dates, Buying US stocks.
On August 11, 2016, Chicken Little broke up with Treasury bonds, and began looking for love elsewhere. Consistent with Chicken Little "Investment Rules," this post describes Chicken little's first date with buying US Stocks.
Given that Chicken Little fears a deflationary depression, buying US stocks has been emotionally challenging. some details follow.
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| Chicken Little has bought US stocks |
11/9/16
President Trump and Chicken Little
What is the impact of President Trump on Chicken Little's view of the financial world?
Just five months ago, I wrote that "Brexit changes nothing for Chicken Little".
In sharp contrast, the election of Donald Trump is a big change for Chicken Little. However, the central economic issue in the world remains unchanged.
Just five months ago, I wrote that "Brexit changes nothing for Chicken Little".
In sharp contrast, the election of Donald Trump is a big change for Chicken Little. However, the central economic issue in the world remains unchanged.
11/4/16
Chicken Little Portfolio Performance October 2016
In October 2016, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 2.37% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.78%.
You can view the portfolio performance in real time by clicking here (you need a free simvest.com account).
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| Markets stall as Central Banks fail |
10/30/16
Central Banks' Battle of the Bulge
On January 10, 2016, Chicken Little warned of a deflationary depression. Within a few weeks of Chicken Little's deflationary warning, exactly the opposite happened -- prices of everything including oil, gold, and stocks and bonds began rising.
Just today (Oct 30, 2016), the Wall Street Journal printed a front page headline "Inflation, Long Quiescent, Begins to Stir," writing "markets and central bankers alike will be relieved that the world is no longer skirting a deflationary abyss."
Did Chicken Little make the mistake of crying deflation just at the beginning of an inflation?
Just today (Oct 30, 2016), the Wall Street Journal printed a front page headline "Inflation, Long Quiescent, Begins to Stir," writing "markets and central bankers alike will be relieved that the world is no longer skirting a deflationary abyss."
Did Chicken Little make the mistake of crying deflation just at the beginning of an inflation?
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| The snake you can see, sometimes does bite. |
10/16/16
Chicken Little Investing Rules - the short version
On August 11, 2016, Chicken Little changed his relationship status. After a nearly decade-long love affair with US Treasury bonds, Chicken Little packed his bags and moved to a small apartment near the beach with a bean bag chair and one cracked plastic cup.
Unfamiliar with the new financial dating scene, Chicken Little has been nervous. "It is too soon." "Do I swipe right or left on Tinder?" Before going on a few financial dates, Chicken Little knew that he had to set some rules.
Unfamiliar with the new financial dating scene, Chicken Little has been nervous. "It is too soon." "Do I swipe right or left on Tinder?" Before going on a few financial dates, Chicken Little knew that he had to set some rules.
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| Chicken Little Looks for Investment Love |
10/3/16
Chicken Little Portfolio Performance September 2016
In September 2016, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.63% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.44%.
You can view the portfolio performance in real time by clicking here (you need a free simvest.com account).
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| Dangers Lurk beneath the surface |
9/30/16
Angela Merkel will secretly print Euros to save Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank on the Brink of Bankruptcy?
What are the odds that Deutsche Bank will fail and cause a 2008-like collapse? Chicken Little's answer is the the odds are less than zero. This may seem impossible as probabilities are supposed to range from 0% to 100%.
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| Deutsche Bank needs help |
What are the odds that Deutsche Bank will fail and cause a 2008-like collapse? Chicken Little's answer is the the odds are less than zero. This may seem impossible as probabilities are supposed to range from 0% to 100%.
9/19/16
Regime Shift in the Bond Market - Japanese Bond Market
Chicken Little is scared of his own shadow. In this post, however, Chicken Little makes the reckless prediction that the bull market in Japanese bonds is over.
Betting against the Japanese bond market is known as the 'widowmaker' trade because it has bankrupted so many famous investors. Has Chicken Little found a bit of courage or gone insane?
Betting against the Japanese bond market is known as the 'widowmaker' trade because it has bankrupted so many famous investors. Has Chicken Little found a bit of courage or gone insane?
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| Chicken Little takes a path that has destroyed many others |
9/1/16
Chicken Little Portfolio Performance August 2016
In August 2016, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.65% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.25%.
You can view the portfolio performance in real time by clicking here (you need a free simvest.com account).
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| Markets have been eerily calm; the storm looms |
8/31/16
Chicken Little an Investment Crank?
A brief update on the success (failure) of my blog. I began the blog a couple years ago, and I love writing the articles. I love writing them so much that I reward myself after finishing an unpleasant task by allowing myself time to write a post.
Readership of the blog has increased from nothing to modestly more than nothing. However, I just discovered that some of this increase may be for the wrong reasons.
Readership of the blog has increased from nothing to modestly more than nothing. However, I just discovered that some of this increase may be for the wrong reasons.
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| Is Chicken Little a Crank? |
8/11/16
Chicken Little sees the end of his love affair with Treasury Bonds
1. Treasury Bonds have been an amazing investment
2. The Future of Treasury Bonds is worse than the Past
3. Chicken Little is looking for new investment love
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| Chicken Little's Love for Treasury Bonds is Waning |