Chicken Little is Bullish. How bullish? So bullish that he owns stocks, so bullish that he wants the stock market to rally, so bullish you should all be very afraid.
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| *Chicken Little is a snorting, rip-roaring bull |
1/30/17
The Raging Chicken Little Bull
Chicken Little is Bullish. How bullish? So bullish that he owns stocks, so bullish that he wants the stock market to rally, so bullish you should all be very afraid.
1/27/17
DOW 20,000 and Mean Markets
In 2013, I incorrectly predicted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would hit 5,000 before it hit 20,000.
Financial markets can be frustrating and mean. In this case, perhaps the market has a sense of humor. By some strange coincidence, I was at the NYSE on January 25th at the exact moment that I was proven wrong.
I promised a set of excuses and you can read them here: Terry's excuses for being wrong.
Financial markets can be frustrating and mean. In this case, perhaps the market has a sense of humor. By some strange coincidence, I was at the NYSE on January 25th at the exact moment that I was proven wrong.
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| At NYSE January 25, 2017 for Dow 20,000! |
I promised a set of excuses and you can read them here: Terry's excuses for being wrong.
1/17/17
Chicken Little Portfolio Performance December 2016
In December 2016, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 0.08% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.42%.
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| Chicken Little starts 2017 scared and hiding in Treasury Bonds |
12/13/16
The Greenspan Put becomes the Yellen Collar
Wall Street expects the Fed to raise interest rates by a quarter point tomorrow, December 14, 2016. But there is a potential surprise: The world may learn that the Fed wants to raise rates aggressively in 2017 and 2018. This new, more “hawkish” monetary policy may become known as the “Yellen Collar.”
12/8/16
Dow 20,000, and my list of excuses
In 2013, I wrote, " we will see Dow 5,000 before we see Dow 20,000" To make matters worse, I went on CNBC to argue that printing money takes from savers to give to borrowers like the US Government. While creating winners and losers, loose money, I argued, makes the overall pie smaller.
Today, I am preparing to eat crow. The Dow is less than 2% from 20,000. It is almost mathematically impossible for my prediction to come true. I am preparing my list of excuses, and will publish them at Dow 20,000 (Here is my January 2017 post after the Dow proved me wrong).
Today, I am preparing to eat crow. The Dow is less than 2% from 20,000. It is almost mathematically impossible for my prediction to come true. I am preparing my list of excuses, and will publish them at Dow 20,000 (Here is my January 2017 post after the Dow proved me wrong).
12/7/16
15 Ways Chicken Little Made Money in the Trump Rally
US Stocks have gained almost 10% since Donald Trump was elected. As detailed in previous posts, Chicken owns only a tiny amount of US stocks, which means that he makes almost no money directly from the stock market rally.
So is Chicken Little missing out on the rally? No. At the bottom of this post, there is a list of 15 ways that Chicken Little has made money because of the stock market rally. This article is the reverse of one from January of 2016: 15 Ways Chicken Little Lost Money in the Stock Market Decline.
So is Chicken Little missing out on the rally? No. At the bottom of this post, there is a list of 15 ways that Chicken Little has made money because of the stock market rally. This article is the reverse of one from January of 2016: 15 Ways Chicken Little Lost Money in the Stock Market Decline.
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| Chicken Little is (indirectly) riding the Wall Street Bull |
12/4/16
Economics and Evolutionary Mismatch
Economics is lost. Here is recent academic article of mine that argues for a biological road to a better economics. Economics is lost, in part, by a failure to understand the impact of ancestral urges on behavior in industrialized settings, "Bread, crack cocaine, meat, cell phones, vaccines, cyanide, sleep, and birth control pills are all treated identically by standard economic theory."
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| Human nature was shaped in ancestral environments |
12/1/16
Chicken Little Portfolio Performance November 2016
In November 2016, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 4.67% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.94%. The US bond market is in the midst of an enormous decline.
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| President Elect Trump had a HUGE impact on markets |
11/29/16
Chicken Little First dates: Shorting Non-US stocks.
On August 11, 2016, Chicken Little broke up with Treasury bonds, and began looking for love elsewhere. A prior post describes buying US stocks - a tough position for a doom-and-gloomer.
Consistent with his "Investment Rules," this post describes a psychologically easier trade for Chicken Little of shorting Non-US stocks.
Consistent with his "Investment Rules," this post describes a psychologically easier trade for Chicken Little of shorting Non-US stocks.
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| Chicken Little is betting against Stocks Outside the US |
11/21/16
Chicken Little First Dates, Buying US stocks.
On August 11, 2016, Chicken Little broke up with Treasury bonds, and began looking for love elsewhere. Consistent with Chicken Little "Investment Rules," this post describes Chicken little's first date with buying US Stocks.
Given that Chicken Little fears a deflationary depression, buying US stocks has been emotionally challenging. some details follow.
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| Chicken Little has bought US stocks |
11/9/16
President Trump and Chicken Little
What is the impact of President Trump on Chicken Little's view of the financial world?
Just five months ago, I wrote that "Brexit changes nothing for Chicken Little".
In sharp contrast, the election of Donald Trump is a big change for Chicken Little. However, the central economic issue in the world remains unchanged.
Just five months ago, I wrote that "Brexit changes nothing for Chicken Little".
In sharp contrast, the election of Donald Trump is a big change for Chicken Little. However, the central economic issue in the world remains unchanged.
11/4/16
Chicken Little Portfolio Performance October 2016
In October 2016, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 2.37% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.78%.
You can view the portfolio performance in real time by clicking here (you need a free simvest.com account).
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| Markets stall as Central Banks fail |