March 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Is there going to be a deflationary debt crisis in the US with high real interest rates? I believe so. The investments to own in a deflationary, and high real interest rate, environment are cash and short term t-bills. Crypto and gold can serve as insurance in situations where it becomes hard to obtain and use cash.

Crisis investments

February 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Rising interest rates will crush the economy and risky assets. This has been my belief for years, and now it is coming true. Look out below. 

Interest rates will crush speculation

Chicken Little, Why still bearish?

The Chicken Little remains 99% + 1% bearish. Why?  

Bear is just resting, hasn't gone away

January 2023, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The bear market case is getting existential. How long will we have to wait for the bone-crushing financial depression? 

Only Samuel Beckett knows

December 2022, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

2022 was a terrible year for investors. I believe that 2023 will be worse. 

Danger Ahead!

November 2022, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Q: What is worse than the Fed raising rates? A: the Fed loosing control of rates.  Financial Depression looms and the Government cannot prevent disaster.  Furthermore, financial pain will fuel public anger in unpredictable and dangerous ways 

Social unrest will increase

October 2022, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

Stocks are rallying, bonds are rallying, gold is rallying, is the storm over? No. Not surprisingly, Chicken Little sees nothing but storm clouds ahead.  

Chicken Little sees only the clouds

Chicken Little Buys Bonds

Chicken Little has purchased some US Treasury notes maturing in 3-8 years.

Buy Bonds

September 2022, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The Sky is Falling. All assets have lost considerable value so far in 2022. Chicken Little predicts more extreme losses. What is next after the plunge? The Fed will try cutting rates and restarting the printing presses. However, loose money leads to financial disaster. The Fed will end up even more disgraced than they are now.  

More Fed printing & problems ahead

August 2022, Chicken Litte Portfolio Performance

Chicken Little is focused on interest rates. Financial headlines highlight the recent rapid increase in rates. However, inflation-adjusted, real rates, remain firmly negative. That means real rates have to go higher, much higher. Higher real interest rates ahead mean almost all asset prices have further to fall (you ain't seen nothing yet).

Fed Chair Powell: Rates are going higher

Chicken Little gone insane?

Chicken Little has gone insane? I have shorted stocks again today.

Here are some recent trades, sell stocks at Dow 31,000, buy stocks at 33,500, sell stocks at 33,000. So losing money at every turn, selling low and buying high. 

Today, I sold stocks short again. I continue to believe that the end is coming soon (financially).  

July 2022, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance

The Fed is a hero again? By raising real rates to negative 6% and reducing the balance sheet by 1% has the Fed cured decades of bad decisions? A new bull market is born and new highs are coming soon? Anything is possible, but (unsurprisingly) Chicken Little sees new lows before new highs.

Chicken Little see financial storms ahead