There are a surprising number of websites that will teach you how to win a bar fight. This post translates that 'wisdom' into dealing with the your investments in the stock market with links to previous Chicken Little posts about the stock market.
6/6/18
May 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
"It's not the money I will miss, it is the things"
-- Private Judy Benjamin
The 'Wealth Effect' is the money people spend when they become wealthier, often because of rising stock & housing prices. Will people continue to spend if assets do not rally in 2018?
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| 2018 may not have a positive wealth effect |
5/1/18
April 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
The coming great financial storm may be upon us. In the past, I have focused on the probability and characteristics of the coming Financial Depression (e.g., "there will be a massive, historic drop in price for all risk assets"). In this post, I focus on the process of the decline, and the barrier you will face in saving yourself and your family.
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| The Great Financial Storm Looms |
4/18/18
Men Can be Evil: Economists are often confused
Men fill the world’s prisons, commit most murders, and have started all major wars. In another example of scientists rediscovering ancient truths, a new study of mine documents the costs men impose on (an experimental) society. In the study, status-seeking men are willing to impose enormous costs on others to move up in the hierarchy.
4/17/18
Initial Bear Market Raid Complete
Chicken Little began a modest bear market raid by shorting US stocks in February. That short position is now closed. The Chicken Little Portfolio made 0.25% on this raid. (6.25% short positions and a ~4% decline in US stocks = 0.25%). While this is a tiny gain, making money on the first short position is great, and works to train the mind to look for more opportunities. The Dow Jones Industrials sits at 24,786 - roughly halfway between the January 26, 2018 high and the lows of February. Chicken Little anticipates more declines.
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| Bear Market raid creates taste from more honey |
4/3/18
March 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
The US stock market has declined 10% since January 26, 2018. Chicken Little predicts further declines.
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| A Long Way Down |
3/22/18
Break the Buy the Dip Habit
'Buying the dip' - investing new money after stock market declines - has been profitable for almost a decade. However, Chicken Little believes that buying the current dip will be disastrous (see, Chicken Little sees death). Keeping our money safe, however, requires overcoming our own brains.
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| Don't Buy this Dip |
3/1/18
February 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Chicken Little has begun a first, baby bear market action. Because a variety of markets were weak in February, the odds that January 26, 2018 was the top have increased. Accordingly, Chicken Little has begun a first probing bear market action. (Follow up: this bear market raid ended in April 2018.)
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| Chicken Little makes a first bear market move |
2/6/18
January 2018, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
In January 2018, the Chicken Little Portfolio lost 1.66% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained an amazing 5.74%.
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| "This is the Top" - January 25, 2018 - Chicken Little |
1/25/18
Chicken Little is not bullish on US stocks
Chicken Little has been bullish on US stocks for a year and a half. As of January 25, 2018, Chicken Little is no longer bullish.
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| Chicken Little is no longer bullish on US stocks. |
1/15/18
Chicken Little exits Crypto currencies (again)
Chicken Little has exited cryptocurrencies after a second round of trading (see cyrpto post 2, crypto post 1). Winning at Vegas in a gambler's first visit is said to be a curse as it is hard not to return. For now, Chicken Little has no plans to re-enter for a third time.
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100% returns flood the brain with dopamine |
1/5/18
A- for 2017 Chicken Little Portfolio performance (self-graded)
A-
I give the Chicken Little Portfolio a grade of A- for 2017. Wrong every day of the year on macro predictions, and still managed to beat out a decent return with disciplined, low-risk approach. Also, made a few bucks buying cryptocurrencies.
