Bitcoin dropped from $65,000 to $30,000 in recent weeks. What did I learn from this drop?
 |
| A teachable moment |
5/13/21
April 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Chicken Little stays true to form. Asset markets continue to climb. Chicken Little continues to fear the sky falling in the form of higher interest rates ahead.
 |
| Chicken Little sees nothing but clouds |
4/23/21
Buying a little Crypto - still for Defense
Chicken Little is buying crypto today at Bitcoin $48,000 and Ethereum $2,200. Chicken Little's crypto position is mainly a defense against central bank printing - not a speculation to make US dollars. Modest purchases today after selling the position down by about 75% in recent months - see previous posts on selling - Feb 18 sell crypto, March - 'temporarily pulled back on crypto'.
4/14/21
March 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
The Bull Market rolls forward crushing naysayers. US stocks soared in March of 2021, continuing a winning streak that dates back to March 23, 2020, March 9, 2009, and all the way back to 1800. Stocks for short run and stocks for the long run has been the way to make cash in America.
 |
| It's a Bull Market |
3/4/21
February 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Question: What do you call a scared chicken? Answer: A chicken. The risks in financial markets seem even larger as the great white shark of higher interest rates appears (see last month's prediction).
 |
| All debt crises end with higher interest rates |
2/18/21
Chicken Little makes bitcoin moves
Six months ago, I wrote, "I cannot believe the low price at a mere $11,700 per bitcoin." As I write this, bitcoin price is over $50,000, up over 50% so far in February (18 days) . Chicken Little has sold about 50% of the crypto position. I have also changed the composition of the crypto position toward "alt coins."
 |
| The barrier to investing success is internal |
2/10/21
Revenge of the Sheriff of Nottingham
The 'Sheriff of Nottingham trade' is to target stocks owned by retail investors. This is the opposite of the 'Reditt rebellion'.
Reddit rebellion - buy stock in companies heavily shorted by hedge funds.
The Revenge of the Sheriff of Nottingham - sell stock in companies heavily owned by Robinhood'ers.
 |
| The Sheriff may get revenge |
2/8/21
January 2021, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
The lurking great white shark for financial markets is rising interest rates. Chicken Little believes that the bond market will (eventually) raise the cost for borrowing, and thus end the rally in stocks and other risky assets. Interest rates are still low, but have been rising for some months.
 |
| Higher interest rates may be coming |
1/4/21
December 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
Chicken Little continues to cower in fear of a global economic Depression. However, there has been one big change. Previously, Chicken Little was sure that the depression would be deflationary. Now, the chances of a Fed-induced inflationary Depression seem higher.
 |
| Central Bank Printing has ruined Venezuela |
12/19/20
Currency Paradigm Shift
Chicken Little has over 5% of the portfolio in crypto. Am I risking 5% of my families' cash in dangerous speculation? Or do I have 95% of my families' money in a fiat currency likely to be depreciated to zero.
I have moved toward thinking the US dollar is riskier than crypto. If I complete the change in thinking, I will move more aggressively into crypto. Here are some of key posts on the path from 0% to 5% crypto.
12/8/20
November 2020, Chicken Little Portfolio Performance
November 2020 was an incredible month for financial risk-taking. Asset markets soared with global stocks having their best month since the 1930s.
